Thursday, August 8, 2019

Guest Post: Indo-Aryan Migration into Africa by Allen McDonnell

This post originally appeared on Today in Alternate History.

4,000 YBP, a branch of the Euro-Aryan migration travels southwest from the Fertile Crescent along the Mediterranean coast of Levant and floods into Egypt. At first, the new settlers are welcome, but before long they grow in influence. By 3500 YBP the migrants have spread onward into Upper Egypt further up the Nile river valley, and by 3,000 YBP, the migrants have spread into southern Sudan and the mountains of Ethiopia having followed the river valleys up into the highlands of east Africa. Because of their aggressive pattern and booming population, the Afro-Aryan migration reaches and conquers the region around Lake Victoria a century ahead of the Bantu attempts to migrate into the same very fertile territory. The Bantu are turned away and move on to occupy the Congo River drainage. The barley and wheat brought by the Afro-Aryans from their fully occupied Egyptian lands do very well in the fertile central African uplands, sometimes called the African Great Lakes region.

In the Persian Gulf and further southeast into the northern Indian subcontinent, their success is slower as the native population density is already significant by this time in history. The Afro-Aryan branch, once it penetrates south of Upper Egypt, comes into a lightly settled fertile territory inhabited almost exclusively by hunter-gatherer cultures. The agricultural population advantage allows the new Afro-Aryans to swiftly expand and occupy this 'vacant upland' in less than two centuries, first conquering and then genetically replacing the San and Pygmy populations that had existed here for millennia. Those who practice herding lifestyles soon occupy the vast strip of the Sahel prairies between the Sahara Desert and the tropical forests extending their reach all the way from the Atlantic Ocean coast across to the Indian Ocean coast.

Over the course of centuries, the settlers who invaded the uplands adapted to their environment in competition with the Bantu peoples who dominated in the West African lowlands of the Congo basin and the Atlantic coast. Both cultures competed to the point where their technology and combat capabilities let them maintain a low-level conflict on their borders without either side having enough advantage to evict or successfully conquer the other.

When the Portuguese explored the West African coast south of the Sahara Desert, they discovered that the Afro-Aryans held the coast south of the Sahara Desert, itself held by the North African Berber peoples. Then as they rounded the bulge of Africa they came to the lands occupied by the Bantu peoples that extended through the tropical lowland forest belts all the way south through Angola. When they got as far south as the southern Sahel, however, the situation reversed again with the Afro-Aryans occupying the tropical grasslands that encompassed most of the southern end of Africa. This variegated pattern of occupation and nearly continuous border-conflict between the different peoples created what the Europeans of the sixteenth century took as a massive opportunity. Spain and Portugal had claimed vast areas in the Americas, but neither had the population density to be strong everywhere at once, which in turn led to massive labor shortages. The solution seemed simple enough: by supplying first one side and then the other with arquebuses in different ports of call, they created local power imbalances that encouraged the different factions to raid their enemies. Those raids in turn led to captives who were easily purchased and transported as slave labor to the New World.

Slavery as a cultural practice had been part of nearly every human civilization from before recorded history even began, and nobody thought twice about the implications. The sugar plantations in the Caribbean islands and the mines in the mountains of South America needed laborers, and cheap slaves from Africa filled the bill perfectly. The fact that the Afro-Aryans strongly resembled Indo-Aryans because their ancestors had been living in a tropical environment for thousands of years meant the only distinction those slaves had over European-Aryans was effectively their skin tone and hair color.

In North America, occupation by Europeans France and Great Britain, with small colonies from the Netherlands and Sweden as well, was very tentative at first. Spain and Portugal had both grown rich and to an extent powerful from the wealth brought in by their colonies providing spices, precious metals and gemstones. The French version of this extractive colonization was to concentrate most of their efforts on the Fur Trade in the territory of North America under their sway. The Dutch, British and Swedes, while they were happy to seek precious metals and export furs, had other focuses, namely agricultural products like spices, especially vanilla, chocolate and allspice all of which were native to the Americas. They also grew sugar cane where they could as the profits from sugar as a spice-export were extremely high. Tobacco, while not a spice or a food, was very valuable agricultural export as the nicotine in its leaves caused a mild addiction to its users. Most of these crops were themselves very labor intensive, and once the idea of importing slave labor was accepted by the colonists in North America, a steady stream of imports began.

Rightly or wrongly, by 1750 the belief had developed in the now entirely British areas of the continent of North America that Afro-Aryan slaves were better suited to the climate of the continent while Afro-Bantu slaves were better suited to the tropical Caribbean islands where most of the spices were grown. As a consequence the variegated pattern of populations from Africa was sorted out in a similar stripe set in North America. In Central and South America, the Spanish and Portuguese had no particular preference as the life expectancy of slaves tended to be very short so whatever cheap slaves they could get they purchased. This is not to say no Afro-Bantu slaves were imported in the north, a great many were working out to roughly 20 percent of the total of enslaved persons.

Because the enslaved population included mixed race First Peoples, Afro-Aryans, Afro-Bantu, and European ancestry the concept of genetic rather than social superiority did not become the common definition. Indeed because First People/European and Afro-Aryan/European mixed-descent children came about frequently in early colonial conditions when the female European population was very limited it was realized that the grandchildren of such relations could (6/8 European) "pass for white". At the same time it was considered that for an Afro-Bantu mixed race person would only "pass for white" if 7/8 European ancestry. Of course, any sort of crossing genetic lines vastly complicated things. Add in that men with power over enslaved women, whether they were free or a privileged slave with a supervisory role would frequently take advantage of females they considered attractive resulting in pregnancies and such neat genealogies became purely hypothetical. Further complicating matters in the antebellum South around New Orleans, a large number of indentured European labor was also imported, particularly from Germany which was undergoing frequent political upheaval in the post Napoleonic war period.

After six generations of slavery with the constant genetic influx from supervisory males into the population, the average African American of the 1850's was not in any sense 'pure African blood'. In fact, a growing percentage of the enslaved population was approaching the 'pass for white ' skin tone and by any objective standard they were lighter in skin tone than that hypothetical blond Norwegian working in the tropical sun.

The American Civil War erupted in 1856 when the Republican ticket of President John McLean and Vice President Abraham Lincoln won the nomination and went on to win 151 electoral votes. By following the Lincoln strategy of going after the high population northern states like Pennsylvania and New York and counting on the fact that the New England states would automatically choose an anti-slavery ticket, they won a plurality. The southern Democrats had thrown their support behind the sitting president, Franklin Pierce of New Hampshire, in hopes that party unity would be enough to defeat the abolitionists but the issue of slavery was looming ever larger in American politics. Abolitionists had been arguing for some time that if a man with three European grandparents was 'white ' in the eyes of the general public that such a man being born into slavery was an affront to decency.

With the outbreak of the war, President McLean instructed the Army to use a 'color test ' which involved comparing the bare forearm of any applicant to a piece of tan colored cloth. Anyone whose skin was the same as the cloth or lighter was registered as a 'white ' soldier and entered the regular ranks. This method was used to test captured slaves from the beginning of the conflict and those slaves who 'passed for white ' were drafted immediately into service, where they served alongside immigrants fresh off the boat from Europe and backwoods farmers from all over the Northern tier of states. This standard was passed into Federal law in 1857, declaring that enslaving any person who passed the 'color test ' was both illegal and immoral and any such persons were already free even if being illegally detained by their purported owners. By carefully choosing the cloth dye used for the test President McLean ensured that half or more of the enslaved population were declared already free as an opening act of the war. As the war grinds on, this allowed the Union forces to capture and draft a constant supply of fresh recruits, avoiding the consequences inherent in drafting large numbers of immigrants and rural Americans. Drafting of former slaves along with arming, training, and treating them like European recruits causes them to be both extremely loyal and fierce on the battle field. By February 1859, the Confederacy is on its last legs with thousands of slaves running away to Union forces even when they know they cannot pass the 'color test '. To deal with this influx, President McLean convinces Congress to pass the Former Slave provision to the Homestead Act, which provides for any former slave to receive 160 acres of western lands provided they live on that land and improve it for seven years time. Accordingly these runaway slaves who do not fit the Army standards to serve in white regiments are sent west as quickly as new land can be surveyed and assigned to get them out of federal custody as refugees that must be cared for.

By September 1859, the Confederacy no longer exists. There are no longer any slaves to work the plantations as the drafted soldiers both think of themselves as white, and returned from service with their caplock rifles as gifts of the government for self-defense. The former slave holders find themselves heavily outnumbered by well-trained and well-armed men whom the Federal government extend voting privileges. The old European ancestry power structure is completely gutted. A number of former slave-holders who were particularly cruel to their enslaved persons find the tables turned when they are lynched or have their homes destroyed by organized gangs of vigilantes. The smarter ones quickly discover the option of fleeing the region to be the safest option and they do so. Those who remain discover that the new majority have quickly passed laws removing the rights of all former illegal slave holders to vote or serve on juries or in elected office. For several years, armed gangs from both groups seek to terrorize the other, but the clear majority of new armed and trained citizens inevitably eliminate their opposing gangs one by one. Many of the new majority legislatures in the former confederacy had followed the Arlington example and confiscated the former slaveholder property for failure to pay special taxes levied against them. The properties had then been broken up into parcels of 160 acres or less and auctioned off to the general public. Even in those cases where the former owners had managed to scrape up enough funds to buy back a portion of their lands most of it went to new owners, both former slaves and immigrants.


Tragically President McLean was assassinated three months after his second inauguration by a Confederate sympathizer, John Wilkes Booth. In one of the last pieces of legislation signed by President McLean, it is made official law that Baltimore is the legal port of entry for European immigrants. President Lincoln rising from Vice President to lead the country in July 1861 finds himself in the position of welcoming massive numbers of northern Europeans into the USA in Maryland. Before this time the two ports of Baltimore and New York had competed for the immigrant trade, but it was felt by President McLean and supported by Vice President Lincoln that bringing fresh immigrants into the former Confederacy was the best way to erase the scars of the war.

Friday, July 12, 2019

March 1, 1845 – Opening of the Northwest Passage Canal



President Henry Clay announced before Congress the official opening of a project a lifetime in the making: a canal to allow travel by water from the Atlantic to the Pacific without having to navigate southward across the equator. Explorers had searched for a Northwest Passage over centuries, discovering many of the rivers that would later evolve into colonial settlements. While a route by sea was theoretically possible north of Canada, the extreme cold froze even seawater, and several expeditions perished before enormous icebreakers proved capable of traveling there in the twentieth century.

Clay’s American System pursued a different tactic: if a Northwest Passage could not be found, why not build one? Canal-building boomed in the 1820s after the successful completion of the Erie Canal across northwest New York. Opponents called it “Clinton’s Ditch” after the governor’s pursuit of an outrageously expensive, 350-mile canal that required eight years of digging. After its opening in 1825, however, the passage between the Hudson River and the Great Lakes proved to be an exponential boon to the economy as well as a focus of westward settlement. Ohio boomed and soon built its own canal to complete an inland waterway from New York to New Orleans.

Henry Clay had radically encouraged transportation improvements as Secretary of State under John Quincy Adams with projects like the National Road and the Chesapeake and Ohio Canal. The Democratic-Republican Party from the Era of Good Feelings began to fracture over the question of federal authority and states’ rights, the latter championed by southerners who felt they were missing out on major investments, such as John C. Calhoun’s South Carolina. Adams took a narrow victory for his reelection in 1828, mainly from Clay’s efforts to win votes in the Ohio Valley. Clay determined to have his own victory in 1832, but to do so, he needed to grab attention from the expansion-minded South.

Clay campaigned with promises to boost settlement through the West by bridging the Missouri and Snake rivers into a Northwest Passage with a system of canals. New Orleans seized on the idea, and campaigners supported Kentuckian Clay as a fellow westerner rather than an untrustworthy northerner. The city had grown to become the fifth largest in the United States and looked to grow beyond its previous claim to fame in the heroism of General Andrew Jackson, who perished in the fight to defend the city from British seizure in 1815. It would serve as the southern gateway to the Pacific, drawing in trade from the European ships frequenting the Caribbean.

Once Clay was elected, the problem became how to build the canal in a land that was mostly unexplored. The area around the nearby Yellowstone River lay in legend among trappers as a place of boiling mud, which John Colter called “fire and brimstone” when he journeyed through it after departing the Louis and Clark Expedition, which went northward as it struggled to find a way across the Continental Divide. Clay’s expeditions discovered that the legends were accurate with numerous geothermal springs including geysers. To the west, they discovered a narrowing of the Rockies that would allow for a channel to be cut south from the Madison River branch of the Missouri to reach the long, flat valley along the Snake River, joining the Columbia River before pouring into the Pacific.

Clay’s engineering teams faced an enormous challenge of actually cutting through the rock. It was infeasible to cut very deeply, meaning the crews would need to build over 100 locks that would bring riverboats up and down the steep inclines. The nearby strange land around the Yellowstone headwaters proved to be a divine gift. Ingredients for blasting powder such as sulfur and nitrates were readily available from the geological formations as well as ample wood for charcoal, leading to the largest gunpowder manufactory west of the Mississippi. A miraculous 136-square-mile lake rested above the canal-building area, and workers cut a controlled channel to bring water down to readily refill the locks.

Although there were many who decried the enormous expense of the Northwest Passage Canal, which would be billions in today’s dollars, most investors were eager to contribute. The National Bank shouldered much of the loans, which saw investment from foreign interests eager to save months of travel time to the west. Clay’s administration sold land long the rivers at high prices, easing the federal expenditure. Towns quickly sprang up not just to support the workforce but also in anticipation of heavy river traffic in the years to come. Speculation ran wild, popping the bubble in the major economic downturn in 1837, coinciding with Clay’s departure from the presidency as his American System policy had worn thin.

Clay played up the economic crash, blaming his Democratic rivals squarely, even though that was a gross over-simplification. The simplification did lend to easy slogan, and Clay’s reelection in 1840 was a sure thing based on demands to make the country rich. Despite the international praise at the opening of the canal, it soon became obvious that the system had to close down in winter due to bitter cold freezing the channels and burying them in snow during blizzards. Clay did not seek reelection in 1844, nor did anyone ask him to.

The Northwest Passage proved to be a mixed success. It did prompt massive settlement westward, leading to statehood for territories in the Great Plains and past the Rockies. Feeling the growing pressure of American settlers, Great Britain pushed for clarity on the boundary of Oregon Country, which was finally agreed to at 49 degrees with American claim to Vancouver Island. Tensions continued to build with Mexico, whose own designs connecting the Pacific and Gulf via a canal between the Gila and Rio Grande rivers had been halted by political instability and the issue of building a supply of water in the desert to fill the necessary locks. This would soon lead to war.

Although impressive in its time, technology would put an end to the Northwest Passage Canal when train travel took over within two decades. The locks were desperately expensive, and soon they became nothing more than areas for recreation and tourism in a radically developed area that would suffer terrible environmental damage for decades to come. Following the downturn of American manufacturing, which surged in the region until after the Second World War, the area declined into what many called the Western Rust Belt.


--

In reality, Jackson did not die at New Orleans, and his popularity would lead the Democratic Party to victory routinely in the early 1800s. The area along the Continental Divide would remain largely unexplored for decades to come when Yellowstone’s headwaters proved to be as majestic as the legends of fur trappers said. Yellowstone became the first National Park, signed into law by President Grant in 1872. In 1978, Yellowstone became a UNESCO World Heritage Site as the largest nearly-intact ecosystem in Earth’s northern temperate zone (Shullery, 2006).

Monday, July 8, 2019

Guest Post: Skorzeny's Daring Rescue Fails

This article first appeared on Today in Alternate History.

September 12, 1943:

On this day in alternate history, Operation Eiche ended in disaster. This was a daring rescue mission to whisk Hitler's former Axis partner Benito Mussolini away from Campo Imperatore Hotel to a meeting at Wolf's Lair. But for reasons unknown and despite the objections of the pilot, Commando leader Otto Skorzeny insisted on accompanying him in the Fieseler Fi 156 STOL. This overloaded the plane, which crashed into a cliff and killed everyone on-board.
The Fuhrer had been enraged when Victor Emmanuel III, the King of Italy had replaced the Duce with Marshal Pietro Badoglio. As he suspected, this led to an armistice signed only three weeks after the Sicily landings. When Mussolini was placed in captivity, Hitler even threatened to seize the Pope. Instead, his Austrian-born countryman Skorzeny was ordered to rescue the Duce.

The light security detail at the Hotel was unmistakable evidence that the fate of Benito Mussolini was considered a complete irrelevance to the outcome of the war and, indeed, the future of Italy. But Badoglio miscalculated and this would lead to the early collapse of his Government. Hitler wanted a figurehead for his Northern Italian puppet state, and, although alternative leaders such as Alessandro Pavolini or Rodolfo Graziani would probably do, Il Duce, despite being a dejected figure, was strongly preferred for the appearance of continuity. Therefore, the Duce still at least had some symbolic value.

After the crash, the morale of the Italian Social Republic never got off the ground without the Duce. This was to be to the great military advantage of the Communist partisans operating in the North with the assistance of British SOE. Although Churchill was denied his opportunity to strike at the soft under-belly of Europe, nevertheless it was a development not without consequence because Western Yugoslavia was liberated before Soviet forces could arrive. 


The head of the Yugoslav Partisans, Josip Broz Tito, had made an arrangement with the Germans to jointly oppose any Western landing. The inevitable result was the partition into a western kingdom led by King Peter governing from Sarajevo, and an eastern Communist state ruled out of Belgrade by Tito. This settlement was formed by the percentage agreement, a "naughty document" proposed by Churchill and signed by Stalin, stating that Great Britain would get 50% sphere of influence control.

Tito would die in 1980 and be succeeded by another strongman, Slobodan Milosovic. However, East Yugoslavia would not survive long past the fall of Communism in 1989, after which Peter II finally became the constitutional monarch of a united country.

Author's Note: in reality, they only just missed the cliff, and it was considered the greatest special forces triumph of WW2. This led to further operations including the kidnapping of Admiral Horthy's son and also Operation Grief during the Battle of the Bulge. Peter II was was prevented from returning to Belgrade by Prime Minister Subasic. This was after Stalin demanded a three man regency council to govern until a plebiscite was held on if Yugoslavia should become a republic or remain a monarchy. He died in 1970 following a failed liver transplant. His cirrhosis was caused by depression resulting in alcoholism.

Sunday, May 5, 2019

Guest Post: Icebreaker Begins

This article originally appear in Today in Alternate History as 5th, May 1940 - Icebreaker begins

In retrospect, the timing of Josef Stalin's first stroke during early 1936 was precipitous. Certainly, the Soviet leadership's weak handling of the Spanish Civil War was a short-term boost to the Fascist dictators. For the Western democracies, it was rather fortunate, then, that powerful new figures in Russia were exercising an iron grip of the Kremlin four years later. The real significance ultimately was the end to a cleansing of Communist Party ranks, stopping short Stalin's planned purge of the officer corps in the Red Army.

A second, far more debilitating stroke followed shortly after high representatives of the Nazi German government concluded negotiations leading Moscow on the evening of August 23, 1939. In fact, both parties had signed a dead letter even though the ink was hardly dry on the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact. From a strategic perspective, the neutrality of the USSR prevented Great Britain from using the dominance of the Royal Navy to impose a WW1-style embargo on the Germans. Despite the steady flow of supply from the USSR to Germany, there was never any realistic prospect of the Western Allies actually declaring war on both the Soviets and the Nazi, even though both countries had blatantly violated sovereignty of a neutral nation when they partitioned the Second Polish Republic. The opportunity for the Western Allies to strike Soviet oil-fields in Baku was passed up by Chamberlain, even though an earlier Churchill Government might well have calculated otherwise. Clearly, the Western Allies could not afford to fight both great powers.

As plainly evidenced by the articulation of his own megalomaniac vision in his prison diary Mein Kampf, Adolf Hitler had every intention of invading the USSR as soon as his Western flank was secure. However, he badly miscalculated Soviet intent when he massed seventy percent of the Wehrmacht in Western Europe. The Red Army, having abandoned their defences to occupy Poland, seized the opportunity to pounce as soon as the Battle of France was underway. The so-called Operation Suvorov was actually a variation of a secret operational plan devised by Stalin to use Nazi Germany as an "icebreaker," i.e. to take control of the continent by manipulating Hitler into a wider war that he could not possibly win. The so-called "Man of Steel" would not live to see victory, because "Dr." Beria saw fit to relieve cranial his pressure with a 9mm drill.

The critical period of time for the Soviet strike was 11-12 May when German supply dumps and  100% of the Luftwaffe had been irretrievably committed to the West. Only eight divisions of German troops were deployed on the Eastern front, and none in defence of Hungary or Romania. Even though the Wehrmacht had struck decisively and the Dutch had surrendered, the British, French and Belgians were undefeated. This was the point of vulnerability when the Soviets chose to strike.

Ironically, a purge of the Red Army would have probably have made Icebreaker infeasible. In the present moment, however, with the Red Army at full strength, this was a tactical masterstroke but only time would actually tell whether Soviet logistics could sustain such a risky initiative. As the old military truism goes, "Amateurs talk about tactics, but professionals talk about logistics." In all probability, the Soviets lacked the logistical capability to defeat Germany in 1940. 

Consequently, it was decided to attack on two fronts. About 400,000 Soviet troops crossed the border from occupied Poland into Germany. Meanwhile, a 100,000 strong Soviet force attacked the small Romanian army and occupied the oil-producing region of Plioesti. It was anticipated that this strategic strike would cause acute resource shortages for the Wehrmacht within six months or less. By then senior officers of the Wehrmacht had overthrown Hitler and called for a ceasefire.

Communism had won the day and post-1940 Europe was a transformed continent. The Soviets and the Axis Powers entered a Cold War Period that frequently threatened to, but never quite broke out into open conflict. All of these countries would collapse to popular democratic movements during the late 1980s. Meanwhile Britain and France had lost their global leadership and lay in the shadow of the two neighbouring super-powers, USSR and Germany. Both WW1 victor powers would de-colonise and form a Western European Community with the Low Countries as they struggled to remain relevant as the millennium approached.

Author's Note: In reality between twenty-five and fifty percent of officers were purged, which seriously weakened the operational fighting strength of the Red Army prior to the outbreak of war.

Monday, March 18, 2019

Guest Post: 15th March 1935 - Aleppo Canal opens

This post first appeared on Today in Alternate History.

Against all expectations, the "sick old man of Europe" was re-born as the new country of Ottomanistan, a rich oil-producing Caliphate, in the two decades that followed the Empire's humiliating defeat in the Gallipoli Campaign. Inevitably, the victor powers' influence in the region sharply declined during that same period.

The reason for this reversal of fortune was the growing revenue from the kerosene trade that had rejuvenated the Caliphate's coffers. This was a welcome development because the old empire had been heavily burdened by the still unpaid debts to Western banks that dated back to the Crimean War. At last the return to Great Power status was surely marked around the world by the iconic picture of Jamal Pasha the Bloodthirsty and tribal leaders opening of the Aleppo Canal connecting the Mediterranean Sea with the Euphrates River. This shorter route offered advantages over the Anglo-French owned Suez Canal although it required a complex series of engineering works to succeed. This included dams and fresh water reservoirs in order to prevent salt water from polluting the agricultural hinterland.

The end of six centuries of empire had been widely predicted prior to the outbreak of the Great War. It was the British Admiralty that had conceived the breakthrough idea of triggering this collapse. They planned to capture the Dardanelles using outdated naval ships unfit for combat against the German fleet. This initial gambit ended in failure, but in a second attempt, the New Zealand and Australian Division and the Australian 1st Division made landfall. Of course, had the Entente Powers not switched the invasion point to Suva Bay, then Lieutenant Colonel Mustafa Kemal would be alive and Enver Pasher perhaps still in charge of the military triumvirate.
 

Instead, Ottoman participation in the Great War ended with the Armistice of Constantinople. The ancient Greek province of Thrace was returned to the Hellenic Kingdom, and Anatolia was formed into an independent new buffer state. Western Allied forces occupied the straits and the city of Constantinople was ceded, under existing Treaty obligations, with some reluctance, to the Tsar. This was justified because keeping Russia in the war was a strategic objective of the Western Allies. Even though Russian forces had been less than twenty miles away, this marked the historic (if arguably, undeserved) achievement of a long-term Imperial policy objective. Not only was the Russian Black Sea Fleet now engaged, but massive Anglo-French supplies and reinforcements could be sent to relieve the pressure on the Eastern Front. To support this thrust, the Royal Navy was given freedom of the straits and a port in the Aegean. Consequently, the outcome was a win-win for the Entente Powers, if not actually a war-winning game changer as originally hoped for.

Of course the departure of sixty million citizens of Turkic origin transformed demographics for Ottomanistan. Declaring a new capital in the Syrian city of Aleppo, the sixteen million remaining Ottoman citizens were predominantly Arabic, and Ottomanistan retained control of the Islamic religious centre of Medina. The new Grand Vizier would be Jamal Pasha, the former Governor of Aleppo, following Enver Pasha's resignation due to the humiliation of defeat. A confident and charismatic national leader, this proved to be the first step in the recovery of Ottoman fortunes. As world demand for petroleum increased, the country that was seen as a shadow of its former self suddenly found great wealth in its natural resources and power in competing offers of alliance with old enemies and allies in Europe.

Author's Note:

In reality the failure to secure the high ground at ANZAC Cove led to a tactical stalemate with the landings contained by the defenders in a perimeter less than 1.2 mi (2 km) long. In this scenario we have used the more favourable landing site of Suva Bay that was used later in the campaign under the hopelessly incompetent generalship of Sir Frederick Stopford. The picture shows Djemal Pasha with Iraqi tribal leaders, celebrating the completion of the al-Hindya dam on the Euphrates river near al-Hilla, south of Baghdad.

Friday, March 8, 2019

Guest Post - VJ Day Delayed


If there was irony as well as tragedy in the propaganda phrase "Loose Talk Costs Lives" then it was because the experimental physicist Luis Walter Alvarez was shocked and appalled by Truman's wildly inaccurate depiction of the bombing of Hiroshima. The president had mistakenly said that the energy of the blast was equivalent to 20 kilotons of TNT, the measurement of the test bomb at Alamogordo, New Mexico. Of course he might have been exaggerating simply because he had threatened the "complete and utter destruction" of Japan in his Potsdam Declaration. Alvarez, however, knew for certain that it was only 13 kilotons. This was because of the radio transmitter-based measurement device that he had parachuted out of a chaser plan flying directly behind the Enola Gay.
 
Even had it been blatantly ignored by the military hierarchy, the measurement would still be required for the bombing of Nagasaki even though Alvarez was not assigned to the operational mission. This proved to be a costly miscalculation because he decided to take matters into his own hands. Whether through guilt or anger, but certainly for the wrong reasons, Alvarez took the fateful decision to attach to the device a warning letter addressed to a scientific colleague called Ryokichi Sagane, a physicist working at the University of Tokyo. The letter was edited by two of Alvarez colleagues, Bob Serber and Phil Morrison.

The Japanese military recovered the letter and handed it to Sagane on August 11th. The emotional Alvarez liked to think that maybe his persuasive words would play a role in the rapidity of the Japanese surrender. If so, he was very badly mistaken because Sagane deduced from his words that the United States had exhausted its stock of enriched uranium.

The Imperial Japanese Government agreed with him but in the present moment were equally if not more concerned by the rapid advancement of Soviet forces. This fear was actually shared by the Americans who would have a third bomb (fourth if one counted the test) ready by August 18th. Due to Alvarez breaking the rules, it would be necessary to drop this device on the city of Kokura in order to end Japanese procrastination before the Soviets could make a move on Japanese territory.

As events were to transpire the shape of the post-war world had been transformed in the very moment that Sagane opened the fateful letter of warning. The Soviets learnt of this development via intercepted signal traffic. With their forces crossing the Yalu River, they decided to act upon this intelligence by declining the American request to pause the invasion of Korea at the 38th parallel.

Meanwhile, the Chinese cities of Nanking, Tientsin and Shanghai were occupied by the Red Army. The consequence of this would be that China, rather than Korea, would be partitioned along the Yangtze River following VJ Day. In the long-run this outcome might well have saved Chiang's Nationalist regime but in the present moment the Soviet expansion in the Pacific was unexpected. Indeed it seemed to many in the West that the atomic bomb had snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. This proved not to be the case because Nationalist China, strongest of the Asian economic Tigers, became the bulwark of American power in the Pacific long beyond Chiang Kai-shek's death in 1975. The continuation of his rule had enabled the government of South Vietnam to weather the storm of civil war.

Author's Note: In reality, Sagane did not pass the letter until after the war, and Alvarez did not actually sign it in his name until much later in 1949.

Tuesday, February 26, 2019

Guest Post - Viking Gunpowder

This post first appeared on Today in Alternate History.

25 September, 1066 - Supremacy of Vikings assured at Stamford Bridge


By the time that the incomparable Norseman Harald Hardrada was born it appeared that the age of the Vikings was drawing to a close. Their once-feared sea raiding parties were increasingly met with organised resistance and fortifications as Christianity spread and centralised authorities developed across the continent of Europe.

But their shock troops simply needed to find the right weapon in order to defeat organised troops led by a monarch. Necessity is the mother of invention, and a game-changing technology eventually arrived in the nick of time during the middle of the eleventh century. A priest of Loki had been experimenting with a flash powder effect, and his student conceived of using it for military purposes. The result would be a "grenade," an explosive weapon of gunpowder in a clay pot that could thrown by hand on a rope. The tight control exercised by the priesthood would ensure the Viking monopoly lasted for half a century.

This powerful weapon transformed the invasion of 1066, creating even more awe than the Viking destruction of the monastery on Lindesfarne. After the proud English king's boast of only giving Harald Hardrada land for a grave, he himself was buried six feet under at Stamford Bridge. Thereafter followed the Viking Conquest of Britain, including the use of grenades to defeat the invading Normans as they came ashore at Hastings. Fifty years later, Sigurd I Magnusson would carry the grenades back to Byzantium where Greek fire had been placed in stone and ceramic jars seven centuries earlier. This weapon would later be used to devastating effect in the First Crusade as Scandinavia stood at the helm of continental Europe.

Addendum by Allen W. McDonnell:

Roman Catholics had already learnt the secret of gunpowder by the time that Sigurd the Crusader entered Constantinople during 1107; however, they had to wait their chance until the arrival of the Bubonic plague. Armed with Arquebusies and light artillery, Papal forces reconquered the Viking lands in its wake. The pandemic triggered the start of a new era of enlightenment; not culturally inclined, the Viking had only accumulated knowledge about the limited subjects of nature and geography.

But the collapse of Viking authority was not to overshadow the sea-raiders' tremendous success in protecting Europe from the invasion of the Mongols. This achievement was due not only to the use of gunpowder, but the bold decision to train every man to fight the Mongols and not just the nobility.

Thus the Papal Forces were fortunate to be able to occupy a continent largely free of external invaders. From his Vatican in the city of Prague, the Pope was able to expand Roman Catholicism from Moscow to Montreal and Narvik to Sicily during the long period of expansion, 1350-1800. However, the continent of Europe entered the nineteenth century without steam technology, with engines still to be invented. Armies built and maintained a few dozen weapons each with no standardized designs. The continent stood on the edge of a new industrial revolution.

Certainly new advancement was needed by Papal Forces, for technology constraints had brought them to a pivotal moment much like their predecessors, the Vikings during the mid-eleventh century. Undefeated Islam still controlled Spain/Portugal and after taking the Byzantine Empire the border between Catholic and Islam lie in Greece. Prague's armies struggled to hold back Muslim armies from entering the Balkan states. Further east, Roman Catholic control ranged from the Ural mountains across northern Europe. But the real threat was from the Protestant reformation that was taking place across the Atlantic ocean in North America. This is where Prague's influence was greatly weakened by distance and events appeared to be moving in a totally new direction...

Author's Note: in OTL the Battle of Stamford Bridge was the end of the last major Viking incursion into Europe.

Tuesday, February 19, 2019

Guest Post: The Loyalist Easter Rising of 1915

This post originally appeared on Today in Alternate History.

What happens to Ireland if WW1 were delayed (or avoided)?


In a desperate attempt to prevent the full implementation of the Irish Home Rule Bill, the Ulster Volunteer Force (UVF) occupied key buildings across the city of Belfast. 

Edward Carson's Barmy Army demanded an exclusion zone for Ulster, but their rebellion only triggered a violent crackdown by the forces of the British Empire. Despite widespread sympathy from officers in the British Army, this fierce reaction was considered justifiable because there was a whiff of Communism in the air. In fact, the Unionists had been encouraging protests from workers in Glasgow, Liverpool and London, and there was a risk of civil war. Ironically, the Home Rule bill had passed the House of Commons in 1912, but a defeat in the House of Lords placed a two-year hold until their veto timed-out. 

A federal structure was require to unify the thirty-two counties and make a single home rule territory governable. This imperative would require a separation of Church from State and a variation of the Westminster System that would empower the four provinces. Devolution brought a level of autonomy to areas of Protestant Plurality and, despite the tremendously high cost, created a new dominion within the British Empire. For Prime Minister H.H. Asquith, it was a triumph of Liberal Statesmanship, although in truth, he had been forced to accommodate the Irish Parliamentary Party as a result of the Tory gains in the 1910 General Election.

The Irish Republic would finally come into existence in 1948 as the British Government was forced to withdraw from Empire, cutting her overseas security and defence costs as a result of the bankrupting costs of the Great European War. Giving up her Empire was never going to be enough, since the Imperial markets had now been lost and, as a result, economic activity continued to rapidly decline during the next twenty-five years. 

Both Great Britain (GB) and also the Republic of Ireland (RoI) were essential forced to join the European Economic Community in an effort to gain access to the expanding market on the continent. This development eventually led to freedom of movement across the European Union (EU) which had the effect of re-integrating GB and RoI. While the Irish became enthusiastic Europeans (even moving to the common Euro currency), not so much for the British, who were still struggling with internal questions of identity. By the middle of the second decade of the twentieth century, GB held a referendum and voted to leave the EU and build a "global Britain."

This restart affected trading between GB and RoI and Dublin required significant injections of funds from the European Union in order to weather the storm. GB however was unable to ratify a withdrawal agreement and entered a "hard Brexit" on 29th March, 2019 that was the long-standing desire of many Tories. At the current time of writing, this has thrown the whole country into a cyclone of economic problems. But in the long run perhaps Tory statesmanship will demonstrate that the high initial were worth the price, much as Liberal Statesmanship claimed for Ireland over a century earlier. And surely there is a great irony in the Conservative Party resisting Home Rule and later taking Britain into Europe, only to regret both movements later on as they were correctly shown to be on the right side of history.

Wednesday, February 6, 2019

Guest Post: "Empire Reborn"

This article originally appeared as a mash-up on Today in Alternate History based upon two timelines conceived by Vincent Longobardi, Italy 1936 - An alternate Italian history of World War II and An Empire Reborn, which are under development at Long Vin's Writing Den on Tapatalk  "It is humiliating to remain with our hands folded while others write history. It matters little who wins. To make a people great it is necessary to send them to battle even if you have to kick them in the pants. That is what I shall do" ~ Benito Amilcare Andrea Mussolini, (29 July, 1883 - 16 January, 1965)28th October, 2022 - The New Roman Empire Celebrates a Century of Fascism As the one-hundredth year of Fascist era dawned, twenty-first century liberal historians continued to argue that the New Roman Empire (N.R.E.) was an accident of history, even the misbegotten child of random political violence. Surely, they argued, the 1815 Congress of Vienna was the real turning point, if not then surely the wars of independence that formed the Kingdom of Italy in 1871. Or perhaps then the defeat of Austria-Hungary and the resulting 1918 Armistice of Villa Giusti.

Whereas the N.R.E. itself marked the pivotal decision after the March on Rome, which led to King Victor Emmanuel III appointing a Fascist Government. This was formed on 28 October, 1922, by Benito Mussolini, the youngest Prime Minister in Italy's history. Hoping to unite the country, and quite simply forced to make a choice between Fascism and martial law, the conservative establishment had little choice but to place their trust in Mussolini when he was not yet forty. He certainly enjoyed strong support from the industrial and agrarian elites, but the truth was that the king had acted out of a mixture of fear and delusion.

And yet only the protagonists really knew that the actual turning point had occurred on 5 May, 1936, at a historic meeting between Il Duce, the Monarch, and Grand Council of Fascists where Latin emotion once played an unspoken part in events. For all his many flaws, Mussolini had legitimised Fascism, although he lacked the unguarded, maniacal obsession of Adolf Hitler. After his treatment of his fellow countrymen during the Austrian Civil War, the Fuhrer could self-evidently not be trusted. Both dictators had megalomaniac visions of the future, but Il Duce was a much smarter, shrewder politician in the realm of international relations. A dangerous course was therefore chosen by the Council: Foreign Minister Count Galeazzo Ciano, Mussolini's son-in-law, was ordered to forge closer relations with Britain, France, and Germany secretly to see which side would offer Italy the best deal.

Contrary to their howls of protest of new imperialism, the so-called Liberal Democracies were not interested in freeing their colonies; they were just unhappy Italy was joining the ranks of Empires. Given the wrong move, they might retaliate in the same way that they reacted the same way to Japanese expansion into Manchuria and China.
Italy's Ethiopian situation had soured relations with the West but even so the common front that the former Great War Allies had declared at Stresa in 1935 had serious flaws. The appeasers were also secretly negotiating with Nazi Germany. Italy offered up trading concessions that were sufficient to nurture the necessary goodwill for the signing of a treaty of Italian Neutrality after the Fall of France.

These moves were very much in Italy's national interests, but in that moment the future was highly uncertain as Hitler's Germany was rapidly gaining power. The successful invasion of Ethiopia, and the formation of Italian East Africa, had left the Fascists isolated diplomatically. Weaker men would have felt compelled to make a choice, but in a larger sense, the recent history of the Kingdom had taught politicians the power of calculation in Council. Ultimately, it was getting right that fine judgement that had really led to the rise of the N.R.E. and an Empire Reborn.

Key lessons were learnt by the Italian military during the Spanish Civil War. During the late 1930s, Italy abandoned the binary division system and returned to a trinary system, such that the Army had less divisions but they were more capable. It is not completely impossible to imagine that a well-timed threat of invasion might have prevented Anschluss and actually stopped Hitler in his tracks. But that outcome would have been counter-productive to Italy's national interests; instead, Il Duce steadily maintained his gaze on expansion to the south and the east. Neutrality meant freedom of action in a sphere of little interest to the Germans and, for the time being at least, abandoned by the Western Allies. Mussolini carefully reaped the seeds of his neutrality with a strong thrust led by the highly capable General Giovanni Messe in Southern Europe that would yield Albania and Yugoslavia and a slow coup that forced Greece more and more into its camp over many years. Italians managed even a toe-hold in the former British Protectorate of Palestine, which included the city and surrounding area of Jerusalem following a border conflict with Lebanon, a lira-block member. Jerusalem became a Free City under nominal Italian oversight following the Easter War,which forced the fledgling state to give up control of territory as part of the peace deal.

Meanwhile, the rebalancing of relations with Britain had occurred at the Fall of France when any prime minister other than Churchill would have sued for peace. Instead, Britain agreed that Italy could expand in the eastern Mediterranean as the price of continued neutrality. Because, after all, the unfair Treaty of Versailles had taught an important lesson to Italy that Britain and France just could not be trusted to make territorial concessions. Aside from that lack of trust, had the animosity been less pronounced, then Italy might well have declared war on Nazi Germany at the death. This could perhaps have yielded Malta or Djbouti at the peace conference, maybe even a veto seat at the United Nations (U.N.).
Meanwhile, with Italy independently pursuing military operations to establish their Empire in the south and east, Nazi Germany narrowed their focus on domination of northern and central Europe. And even though he managed to seize Moscow, Hitler's quest for world domination eventually came to naught, whereas Il Duce's strategies to restore the glory of ancient Rome actually brought his vision to fruition. His former antagonists Britain and France were exhausted and bankrupted by victory. They embarked upon a long retreat from Empire, affording only to retain overseas forced only in Colonies that bordered Italian territory. Fascism had also survived in neutral Spain; nevertheless, it was clear that the N.R.E. was the true beneficiary, if the not the victor, of World War Two. In the end German hubris and Hitler's megalomania led to Germany's downfall and Hitler's suicide. This outcome cemented in Mussolini's mind the deeply held conviction that his destiny was to be the true "man of the 20th century."At the Yalta Conference, Stalin, Churchill and Roosevelt met to discuss the post-war world. Stalin wanted to invade Italy immediately following the end of hostilities with Germany. Roosevelt, however, believed that diplomacy and sanctions would be able to win the day. Churchill, while privately wanting a war, realized that Britain could not stay at war much longer since they were already disbanding a division a month to keep their front line forces at full strength. Churchill also worried that Stalin would try to gobble up the Balkans. They all agreed that Italy would not be allowed into the U.N. Nevertheless, the Soviets secretly provided Yugoslav rebels with arms and support for a low-level partisan war occurring in the Balkans up until the early 1950s. A strong Italian Empire became increasingly vulnerable to attacks by "communist insurgents" backed by the USSR, but there were effective strategies for dealing with this: for example , encouraging fascist insurgents in bordering Warsaw Pact countries that led to an understanding between the U.S.S.R. and N.R.E.

Following the War, France and Britain initially kept their strong ties and common goals, but French revanchism over the years has put strain on between the two nations, though when Italian aggression reared its ugly head, the two nations had been known to set their differences aside and present a common front.

Surely then Il Duce had been wildly exaggerating when he predicted that "the twentieth century would be known in history as the century of Fascism." Yet contrary to global expectations, the decades after his passing in 1965 saw the N.R.E. surge ahead on all fronts. During 1970, the Imperial Space Agency put an Italian on the moon and the Grand Council could certainly take some credit for selecting the hardliner Salvador Medici over Ciano for the role of First Consul. Perhaps even more significantly, King Solomon's Mines had been discovered on N.R.E. territory just outside Jerusalem. This significant discovery was followed ten years later by the Ethiopian Motherlode.
In March of 1980, Alfonso Scordato, an Italian farmer in the Ethiopian Highlands, found himself suddenly wealthy when he discovered gold nuggets in his farm's runoff water. By July of that year the local surveying and mining company brought in realized that what they thought was only a small vein of gold was much larger than anything they have ever encountered before, larger than anything anyone has ever accounted by.

By February of 1981, surveyors sent from Rome announced that the Ethiopian Motherlode held more gold than even King Solomon's Mines. Conservative estimates put the amount of gold contained in the Motherlode as doubling the global supply. Following this Consul Medici of the New Roman Empire quickly moved to have the mines nationalized and exploited. Scordato initially attempted to resist the nationalization plans but quickly acquiesced after being offered a small percentage of all future profits. That deal would make Scordato and his descendants some of the richest people in the world.

Silvio Berlusconi, the then Minister of Industry and a man who held controlling interest in a media enterprise, smelled the profit to be held in those mines. Unfortunately, even though the contracts for the excavation of those minds were being reviewed by his Ministry the final decision would be that of the Consul. Ever the bold businessman, Berlusconi sold all of his interest in the media companies which made him a wealthy man and reinvested his entire fortune in the three companies most likely to obtain the Motherlode contract. Berlusconi's gamble would pay off in the summer of 1982 when one of those companies was chosen as the lead company to oversee operations.

Initial excavations begin in February of 1983 but poor infrastructure in the region kept the output small at the start. This would not do for Medici and Berlusconi and they quickly declared the "East African Initiative Fund." The EAIF would see tens of thousands of Italians and Eastern Europeans moved into Ethiopia and thousands of miles of roads, tracks, electric lines and other utilities laid down for the express purpose of exploiting the Motherlode. The EAIF would pay off and by 1987 the Motherlode mines were operating at peak efficiency.
These finds gave Italy control of two huge gold reserves that transformed the economic fortunes of the entire lira bloc with a doubling of the world's supply.In response to this massive influx of gold into the market the vast majority of developed countries peg the price of gold at fixed rates in order to keep some stability within the gold market and keep the value of gold up and at acceptable rates. Even with these measures in place the N.R.E. is able to bring in billions of dollars on the gold market.

The Consul's office and the Berlusconi uses these billions heavily investing in the Empire's infrastructure system throughout Italy and its territories in South-eastern Europe.

Other initiatives are given to countries in the Lira Block in order to keep those regimes stable. The N.R.E. also focuses heavily on education and technology seeking to close the "Technology Gap" that exists between it and the United States.
The N.R.E. single-handedly dominated the gold market and the Italian Lira backed by vast reserves of gold that quickly come to rival and surpass those at Fort Knox is generally regarded as the world's strongest currency. Many of the nations outside of Europe choose to use the Lira the primary currency of trade and some nations even back their own currency with the Lira. Clearly, history was on the side of the N.R.E., and these events led to diplomatic relations being restored with America. A famous state visit from US ("only Nixon could deal with Rome") occurred over the protests of England and France.

Many economists and historians believe that the discovery of the Solomon Mines and the Motherlode allowed the N.R.E. to weather the storm that was the late 1980s. While that decade and the 1990s saw the fall of the iron curtain and the dissolution of the Soviet Union the N.R.E. managed to stay strong and united. By 2000, the technology gap between the US and the N.R.E. has largely been closed and even Western Europe has begun to begrudgingly accept the Lira's dominance in Foreign Markets.

Author's Note: In this article we have merged Robbie Taylor's scenario and Vincent Longobardi two timelines Italy 1936 - An alternate Italian history of World War II and the sequel An Empire Reborn. As Scott Palter has noted, OTL Mussolini was more of a failed Franco than a Hitler, Jr, as imagined in the West.

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