Guest Post: Ike in the Pacific

This post first appeared on Today in Alternate History from the original idea by Allen W. McDonnell.

 

August 30th, 1935 - MLQ taps Ike

Manuel L. Quezon ('MLQ') faced a truly historic dilemma when he was elected the second president of the Philippines, twelve months after Congress passed the Tydings-McDuffie Act granting the Philippines commonwealth status as a prelude to complete independence. After twenty long years of neglect of Filipino Armed Forces, preparations for the country's full achievement of independence were threatened by the insidious rise of Japanese militarism. The Washington naval treaties had forbidden the fortification of American possessions in the Pacific, like Guam, Wake Island, and the Philippines. To make matters even worse, there was an understandable reluctance in Washington to invest in the defense of islands that were not going to belong to the U.S. much longer. The inevitable consequence was that the U.S. was most needed at the very moment when the transitional administration was coming to an end.

Undaunted by this unfortunate timing, MLQ became "the first Filipino politician to integrate all levels of politics into a synergy of power" but to critics was establishing a "de facto dictatorship." Regardless, his most difficult leadership decision was whom to choose as Chief Military Advisor, realizing that a costly mistake could easily see American hegemony followed by Japanese over-lordship. A key insight offered by some of the potential candidates was that the national defense plan had to be focused on logistics and tapping the natural resources and manpower locally available, a policy-wide issue rather than simply the right choice of military leadership. The problem with this strategy was that the commonwealth could barely afford an annual defense budget of $12 million over the next few years.

Former U.S. Chief of Staff and the U.S. Army's youngest ever major general Douglas MacArthur was briefly considered. The two men had been personal friends for thirty-five years, but MLQ quickly realized his over-bearing character was highly unsuited to the role. The timing was also off for such a long-term total commitment: MacArthur was about to marry his second wife Jean and had publicly expressed a desire to close his public career and return to his ancestral home in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Quezon found that he got along much better with his long-term subordinate Colonel Dwight D. Eisenhower. He was certainly a meticulous organizer with a bright future but had the disadvantage of being a staff officer who had no experience of combat or army command. In the confusion of this difficult choice for Quezon, it was unclear whether the best strategy ought not be to declare Philippine neutrality. If so, selecting an American candidate was likely a big mistake.

Fortunately for Eisenhower, the essential truth of the military situation in the Philippines was that a Baron von Steuben was needed rather than a George Washington. Consequently, Eisenhower was appointed with the assistance of his talented second, Major John Ord. Eisenhower's national defense plan was based upon the cold hard logic of their brilliant intelligence. Determining that invasion of Luzon was only possible at two locations, he set Ord the task of developing the Philippine Air Corps. He also prepared scenarios for naval intervention from the Pacific Fleet. But, his main ploy was to reinforce a beach-line defense strategy.

If there was one upside to the surprise attack on Pearl Harbor, it was the international date line. Eisenhower had the crucial advantage of nine hours early notification of the Japanese attack. He organized a spirited, but ultimately unsuccessful, defense at least in comparison to the British defense of Malaya, Singapore, and Burma as well as the Dutch Defense of the Netherlands East Indies. Notwithstanding his fighting spirit, critics such as MacArthur unfairly pointed the blame at Eisenhower's lack of experience, the suggestion being that MacArthur might have repulsed the invasion on the beach. Following Eisenhower's capture in Corregidor, Roosevelt appointed Admiral Chester Nimitz Supreme Commander, Southwest Pacific Area. This proved to be an inspired choice, and Ike's masterful direction of Allied Forces across the Pacific would eventually lead to the invasion of Formosa and then the assault on the Japanese Home islands. The Philippines would not be liberated until V.J. Day, shortly after Quezon died of tuberculosis in a Miami hospital. In recognition of his immense courage surviving almost three years in capitivity, Truman would give Eisenhower the flagship honor of serving as interim head-of-state until full independence in 1946. This brief foray into politics cost Truman the White House because it would set the stage for Eisenhower's presidential bid two years later under the catchy campaign slogan "Ike has returned."

Author's Note:

In reality, MacArthur received the appointment, retiring from the U.S. Army to continue being the chief military advisor to the Philippines. Six months before Pearl Harbor, he was recalled to active duty as commander of United States Army Forces Far East (USAFFE). A series of calamitous disasters followed that prompted Marshall to recommend his court martial and dismissal for dereliction of duty alongside the culprits Kimmel and Short. The most damaging allegations were that he had failed to act upon nine hours of early warning from Pearl Harbor and that his beach-line defenses resulted in lost inventory when he should have been stocking Bataan.

Following a direct evacuation order from FDR, MacArthur escaped to Australia, where he became Supreme Commander, Southwest Pacific Area. This high-profile appointment has been interpreted as a political decision to satisfy the Australian government. However, after victory at the Battle of Midway in June 1942, most Allied resources in the Pacific were allocated to Admiral Chester Nimitz. Many observers have therefore concluded it was Nimitz that was the architect of victory.

Provine's Addendum:

Eisenhower campaigned on a platform of military readiness in a new, atomic world. Pulling public information from congressional hearings as well as Army Chief of Staff Omar Bradley comment "the Army of 1948 could not fight its way out of a paper bag," it was clear that the shift to peacetime had inherited the problems of the overwrought military during the war without solutions. Marshall, who had largely retired after serving as Supreme Allied Commander in Europe and struggling to wrangle George S. Patton, was blamed for a lack of readiness on the western side of the Iron Curtain despite he himself pointing out budgetary and supply issues ironically similar to those faced by Eisenhower in the Thirties.

Driven by a grassroots campaign, Eisenhower's name was added to every state with a Republican primary. The movement stepped on numerous Republican toes from Governor Dewey of New York and Senator Robert Taft of Ohio, but ultimately the support of former Minnesota Governor Harold Stassen, who resigned in 1943 after 12 years to join the Navy, awarded Eisenhower the Republican nomination. He won handily over Truman so much so that the Chicago Tribune printed their edition early, "Eisenhower Defeats Truman."

Eisenhower's first term was one of national economic reorganization and military readiness. Even with decades-long civil war rolling in China, Eisenhower as Commander-in-Chief had successfully contained it by the next election year. Eisenhower ran in 1952 with Stassen as his vice-president to the disappointment of Senator Richard Nixon of California, who would go on to serve for decades as one of the nation's longest-elected senators and a powerhouse of Washington intrigue. With Eisenhower's announcement of retirement, Stassen became the Republican nomination and victor over Adlai Stevenson. He pushed the US further onto the international field, using it as a major power in the UN to force a solution to the Chinese Issue as well as maintaining the US Navy on alert watching over the similar civil war that raged in Cuba before the island settled as a close US ally.

Following the ultimate collapse of the Soviet Union and the economic opening of China, many considered the next chapter of history a Pax Americana. Critics of the "pax" argue that it is driven by an extreme military-industrial complex and acceptance of surveillance and policing of free speech, especially on the Internet, which was ironically brought about by the push for more advanced technology by the military-industrial complex.