A piece co-written with Today in Alternate History, combining stories here.
What was meant to be a historic
first meeting between a U.S. president and a Mexican president (and also the
first time an American president had crossed the border into Mexico) ended in a
horrible double tragedy with the assassination of both William Howard Taft and
Porfirio Díaz at a disputed neutral border territory.
The ill-fated summit was held
without flags and considerable security forces including Texas Rangers, four
thousand U.S. and Mexican troops, U.S. Secret Service agents, FBI agents and
U.S. marshals. Both presidents were bilingual, and, with no need for
translators, held a closed meeting to discuss matters of state. During their
negotiations they readily agreed a number of bold initiatives that included the
Elephant Butte dam project and also a treaty of arbitration for Chamizal a
strip of land connecting El Paso to Ciudad Juárez (both of which Theodore
Roosevelt would try to take credit for during his historic third-term).
With the formal business of
diplomacy undertaken, the presidents set out to conduct a walking tour and
greet the crowd. However, along the procession route at the El Paso Chamber
stood an assassin with a concealed palm pistol. As had been seen only years
before in the assassination of U.S. President William McKinley at the World’s
Fair in New York, the assassin sprang from the crowd and delivered two
murderous blows. Secret Service agents, who had misguidedly elbowed out other security
forces, were immediately upon the killer. It was already too late.
James S. Sherman stepped up to his
unexpected presidency, but calamitous reactions in Washington along with panic
at the border consumed his first days as a drama of long cabinet deliberations.
Sherman was already not in good health, and the strain aggravated his worsening
kidney condition. Before the end of Taft's unexpired term, Sherman himself
would be succeeded in the Oval Office by his Secretary of State Philander C.
Knox. By 1912, the Republican Party National Convention was running out of candidates,
which convinced party bosses to seek a return to better times by supporting
Theodore Roosevelt in his run for a historic third term.
Roosevelt returned to the White House
amid turmoil in the south. The grisly murder only foreshadowed the violence of
the Mexican Revolution, which was accompanied by widespread anti-American
rioting. The Tampico Affair of 1914 led to the American seizure of Veracruz as
diplomatic relations collapsed. Ultimately the United States erected a series
of forts, known colloquially as “the Border Fence,” for protection from the
chaos, even though American forces routinely moved into Mexican territory on
various military actions seeking justice for raids.
The
tragedy in El Paso would also have profound unforeseen consequences for America's
relations far beyond Mexico. The strong-armed American presence would also cast
a long shadow to the tragedy in Sarajevo five years later. Internationally,
Roosevelt argued that it set an unfortunate precedent for the Habsburg
justification for sending detectives across the border into Serbia to
investigate the murder of Archduke Franz Ferdinand. By the beginning of the Great
War, Roosevelt was clamoring to support the Central Powers. Their pursuit of justice was seen as fit as American incursions in pursuit of Pancho Villa, and America should defend Austrian right as their own.
The rest of America was not so
certain. TR quarreled with Speaker Champ Clark as he pressed Congress for a
declaration of war, which they refused to grant. In his campaign, Roosevelt
alienated enough Americans already sick of violence at the border, which cost
him the 1916 election to his nemesis, Clark. Adding insult to injury, a new amendment
(among others for Prohibition and Women’s Suffrage) set a term limit so that
Roosevelt would never return to office. The true cost of this decision would
become apparent only later when Roosevelt’s Democratic cousin Franklin was
precluded from running in 1940.
The Great War dragged on without
American involvement as Clark focused his administration on North America:
settling the turmoil in Mexico and reviving hopes of annexing Canada. The international
economic boom as Europe rebuilt lured Americans out of isolationism along the
Monroe Doctrine, but the global financial collapse of the Great Depression drove
them back to local interest. The United States was dragged back into the world
theater after the attack on Pearl Harbor, just a few months after turmoil in
the Democratic Party between former vice-presidents “Cactus Jack” Garner and
Henry Wallace handed the 1940 election to Republican Wendell Willkie.
Conspiracy theorists hold to this day that internationalist Willkie was given
advanced knowledge of the Japanese attack in the Pacific but didn’t act so
that the United States would be provoked into joining the war.
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Author’s Note: In reality two
men, the celebrated scout Frederick Russell Burnham and Private C.R. Moore, a
Texas Ranger, discovered, captured and disarmed the would be assassin within
only a few feet of Taft and Díaz.