Guest Post: FDR Begins Tour of Independent Far East

This post first appeared on Today in Alternate History.

Historic Background

In our timeline, Southeast Asia had long occupied one of the world's most strategically valuable crossroads. Stretching between the Indian and Pacific Oceans, the region linked the trade routes of Europe, the Middle East, India, China and Japan. For centuries its kingdoms prospered through commerce in spices, rice, rubber, tin and other valuable commodities, attracting merchants before eventually drawing the ambitions of competing European empires. During the nineteenth century, France consolidated control over Vietnam, Cambodia, and Laos as French Indochina, while Britain established its own sphere of influence across neighboring Burma and Malaya. While colonial governments introduced modern infrastructure and expanded international trade, political authority remained firmly in European hands, fueling an increasingly organized nationalist movement amongst educated local elites.

French rule appeared unshakeable until the Second World War transformed the balance of power throughout Asia. Following the fall of France in 1940, Imperial Japan steadily extended its influence across Indochina before occupying the territory outright during the closing months of the war. Japanese domination shattered the illusion of European invincibility while encouraging nationalist organizations to prepare for independence once the conflict ended. By the time Japan announced its surrender in August 1945, French colonial institutions had largely collapsed, leaving a political vacuum that competing governments, resistance movements, and returning Allied forces each sought to fill.

The future of Indochina quickly became intertwined with the wider question of how the victorious Allies intended to organize the postwar world. At the Yalta and San Francisco conferences, the United Nations emerged as the centerpiece of international peace, yet fundamental disagreements remained over the fate of Europe's colonial possessions. Charles de Gaulle regarded the restoration of the French Empire as essential to France's recovery as a great power, while many Asian nationalists argued that the Atlantic Charter's promise of self-determination should apply equally to colonial peoples. British leaders found themselves balancing sympathy for their French ally against growing pressure for constitutional reform throughout their own imperial possessions.

No Allied leader had given more thought to this dilemma than President Franklin D. Roosevelt. Deeply skeptical of the old imperial system, Roosevelt was a staunch anti-colonialist who believed that many colonial territories should pass through a period of international trusteeship before achieving independence. His broader vision for preserving peace rested upon what he called "the Four Policemen," the United States, Great Britain, the Soviet Union and China, acting together through the United Nations to deter aggression and prevent renewed imperial rivalry. Roosevelt hoped that cooperation between the major powers would replace the competitive colonial politics that had contributed to global conflict during the first half of the twentieth century.

Roosevelt's unexpected passing on April 12, 1945, left a significant gap in leadership, particularly in his vision for post-war diplomacy. His successor, President Harry S Truman, entered office without the benefit of foreign policy experience and was largely unaware of the private agreements FDR had made with Stalin. With the daunting task of concluding the Pacific War and managing a fragile alliance among the wartime powers, Truman's administration began to realize that restoring French authority in Indochina might be the quickest path to regional stability as well as a way to strengthen a crucial European ally. With a focus on securing French support against Soviet influence in Europe, Truman endorsed France's military re-entry into Indochina. By late 1945, France was reasserting its presence in the region, but negotiations with Ho Chi Minh's government quickly fell apart, igniting the First Indochina War. This conflict would lay the groundwork for decades of turmoil, ultimately leading to direct U.S. involvement in Vietnam.

Re-rerouted History

Whereas in our alternate history scenario, Roosevelt recovered sufficiently from the cardiovascular illness that had threatened his life during the spring of 1945, enabling him to remain in office after Germany's surrender. Although physically weakened and increasingly reliant upon a wheelchair and leg braces, Roosevelt understood that the months immediately following the Second World War would determine whether the peace would be built upon cooperation or merely revive the imperial rivalries that had shaped international politics for generations. Convinced that his personal relationships with Winston Churchill, Joseph Stalin, and Chiang Kai-shek still offered the best chance of preserving Allied unity, Roosevelt postponed retirement and resolved to oversee the postwar settlement himself.

Among the questions demanding immediate attention was the future of French Indochina. Roosevelt had long argued that European colonialism had contributed to global instability by denying subject peoples the opportunity to govern themselves while encouraging rivalry between the great powers. During the war, he repeatedly informed both British and French leaders that he opposed restoring French sovereignty over Indochina once Japan had been defeated. Instead, he favored placing the territory under a temporary United Nations trusteeship administered collectively by the victorious Allies, allowing representative institutions to develop before full independence was granted. Although many officials within the United States State Department regarded the proposal as impractical, Roosevelt believed that abandoning it would undermine both the credibility of the newly created United Nations and the Atlantic Charter's commitment to self-determination.

French leader Charles de Gaulle fiercely rejected any suggestion that France should surrender its oldest and most valuable Asian possession, insisting that national prestige and economic recovery depended upon the restoration of the French Empire. At the same time, Ho Chi Minh and the Viet Minh proclaimed the independence of the Democratic Republic of Vietnam, hoping that Roosevelt's well-known anti-colonial views would translate into diplomatic recognition. Meanwhile, Britain found itself caught between supporting its principal European ally and avoiding another prolonged colonial conflict that might destabilize Southeast Asia. The Soviet Union, while publicly supporting anti-colonial rhetoric, remained primarily interested in preserving Allied cooperation until the broader postwar settlement had been secured.

Recognizing that no lasting solution could be imposed unilaterally, Roosevelt invited representatives of the United States, Great Britain, the Soviet Union, China, France, and the principal nationalist movements of Indochina to Singapore during October 1945. After weeks of difficult negotiations, the delegates agreed to what became known as the Singapore Accords. The agreement suspended the immediate restoration of French colonial administration and instead established the United Nations Far Eastern Trusteeship for Indochina, to be jointly supervised by the Four Policemen under United Nations authority. France retained preferential commercial access and extensive cultural institutions, while Vietnamese, Cambodian, and Laotian representatives received guarantees that elected assemblies and constitutional governments would be established before internationally supervised referendums determined each country's final constitutional status.

Although none of the participants regarded the settlement as perfect, the Singapore Accords achieved what had previously appeared impossible. France preserved a respected presence in Southeast Asia without immediately resuming colonial rule, Asian nationalist leaders secured an internationally recognized pathway toward independence, and Roosevelt transformed his Four Policemen concept from an abstract wartime vision into the first major peacekeeping initiative of the United Nations. With the agreement signed and ratified by the participating governments, the President announced that he would personally tour the Far East to demonstrate Allied commitment to the new international order and to reassure the peoples of Asia that the age of colonial conquest was gradually giving way to one of international partnership and responsible self-government.

November 1, 1945 - 

President Roosevelt departed Washington aboard the presidential train to San Francisco before embarking upon the heavy cruiser USS Augusta for the Pacific. Although the seventy-three-year old president remained confined to his wheelchair for much of the voyage and relied upon steel leg braces and crutches whenever he appeared in public, observers were struck by the renewed determination that had characterized his leadership throughout the Second World War. Newspapers around the world hailed the expedition as the "Tour of the Independent Far East", describing it as the first occasion upon which an American President had travelled overseas not to wage war, but to demonstrate the principles upon which peace would be maintained. Every stop along the route had been carefully selected to reinforce the newly signed Singapore Accords, with Manila symbolizing liberation from Japanese occupation, Saigon representing the transition from empire to trusteeship, Hanoi illustrating the emergence of representative government, and Chungking affirming China's new position as one of the world's permanent guardians of international stability.

Roosevelt arrived in Saigon on November 1 before tens of thousands of spectators lining the boulevards that only weeks earlier had witnessed uncertainty over the city's future. Standing behind a specially constructed podium while supported by his crutches, the President delivered what many historians would later regard as the defining speech of his fourth administration. Flanked by General George C. Marshall, General Douglas MacArthur, and Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek, Roosevelt declared that the victory over Japan would mean little if the Allies merely restored the political arrangements that had existed before the war. He instead described the United Nations Far Eastern Trusteeship as proof that the great powers could cooperate not for territorial gain but for the orderly development of self governing nations. The image of America's Commander-in-Chief, visibly frail yet unmistakably resolute, standing beside the Allied commanders who had secured victory in the Pacific became one of the most widely reproduced photographs of the postwar era.

The diplomatic symbolism extended well beyond the ceremony itself. Rather than reviewing French colonial troops, Roosevelt spent much of his visit meeting representatives of the provisional Vietnamese, Cambodian, and Laotian administrations established under the trusteeship. Ho Chi Minh publicly welcomed the president, acknowledging that although immediate independence had been delayed, the internationally guaranteed timetable set out in the Singapore Accords offered a more secure foundation than another destructive colonial war. French delegates, though noticeably reserved, accepted Roosevelt's assurance that France would continue to play an important cultural and economic role throughout Indochina while participating in reconstruction projects financed jointly by the United States and the United Nations. Even critics of the agreement conceded that Roosevelt had succeeded in replacing what might have become an armed confrontation with a negotiated transition that preserved the dignity of all parties.

The remainder of the tour reinforced that message across Asia. In Hanoi, Roosevelt attended the opening of the Indochinese Preparatory Assembly, whose elected delegates began drafting constitutional frameworks for Vietnam, Cambodia, and Laos under international supervision. Travelling onward to Chungking, he met Chiang Kai-shek to announce expanded Chinese participation within the trusteeship, presenting China not merely as a regional power but as an equal partner alongside the United States, Great Britain, and the Soviet Union in maintaining international peace. Roosevelt repeatedly reminded audiences that his Four Policemen doctrine imposed responsibilities as well as privileges upon the great powers, arguing that military strength should serve as the guarantor of smaller nations' independence rather than an instrument for extending imperial influence. Although Soviet observers remained cautious, Moscow publicly endorsed the arrangement while recognizing that continued cooperation offered greater benefits than provoking an immediate confrontation with its wartime allies.

By the time Roosevelt returned to Washington later that month, the Tour of the Independent Far East had transformed international expectations of the postwar settlement. The Singapore Accords had not resolved every political disagreement, nor had they eliminated the competing ambitions of the great powers, yet they had established the United Nations as an active participant in shaping the peace rather than merely observing it. More importantly, they demonstrated that Roosevelt's Four Policemen concept could function as more than an idealistic vision conceived during wartime conferences. Through determined diplomacy, carefully balanced compromise, and the personal prestige he alone possessed among the Allied leaders, Roosevelt had secured a fragile but workable framework through which Indochina could advance towards independence without immediately descending into colonial conflict. The success of the journey encouraged similar trusteeship proposals elsewhere in Asia and Africa, ensuring that the closing months of 1945 were remembered not simply as the end of the Second World War but also as the beginning of a new international order founded upon cooperation, gradual decolonization and collective security.

Author's Note

In reality, Franklin D. Roosevelt died before the European war ended, leaving Harry S. Truman to shape the immediate postwar settlement. Although Roosevelt had expressed strong reservations about restoring French colonial rule in Indochina and favored some form of international trusteeship, those ideas quickly lost influence after his death. France returned to Indochina during late 1945, conflict with Ho Chi Minh's government escalated into the First Indochina War, and the region eventually became one of the principal theatres of Cold War rivalry. Roosevelt's wider vision of the Four Policemen evolved instead into the United Nations Security Council, whose permanent members frequently found themselves divided rather than acting collectively to enforce international peace.

Provine's Addendum

Roosevelt's dedication to self-rule was demonstrated with the independence of the Philippines on July 4, 1946, making good on his "Address to the People of the Philippines" three years earlier. With Burma and Indochina nations moving toward their own peaceful independence, Dutch attempts to reassert control over Indonesia were an international embarrassment. Farther north, the USSR dragged out moving their occupation out of Manchuria, giving time for the Chinese Communist Party to take  a strong position there. With tensions building and a new phase of the Chinese Civil War seemingly on the horizon, FDR spent his final years in office working to ensure that the Double Tenth Agreement was upheld with assured freedoms for all political parties in China, ending the one-party rule of the KMT, and a general election. FDR's efforts talking down both sides from beginning campaigns in 1946 ensured the general election went forward, illustrating regions with stark political differences. Commentators suggested it was essentially a battle map for the civil war to come, but FDR's legacy  kept the peace. Following his retirement in 1949 and death soon after, a plebiscite made for the peaceful separation of Manchuria, similarly to the peaceful demarcation of north and south in Korea. The "Silk Curtain" across Korea, Manchuria, and Mongolia to the USSR border proved as isolating as the Iron Curtain in Europe.

Guest Post: Doggerland Arises 1900

This post first appeared on Today in Alternate History.

February 17, 1912 - Haldane Mission Seeks Neutralisation of Doggerland

"Doggerland shall be a meeting place, not a battlefield. In securing its neutrality, Britain and Germany have transformed a possible source of discord into an instrument of peace for all north-western Europe" ~ Lord Haldane, announcing the Anglo-German Agreement on Doggerland, London, 1912

Historic Background

In our alternate history, Doggerland, once a significant landmass in Northern Europe, remained hidden beneath the North Sea. This situation allowed the island people of Great Britain to reap the benefits of its insular position, securely defended by a formidable Royal Navy, famously dubbed the "Wooden Wall" by Napoleon. However, this period of "splendid isolation" was ultimately challenged by the rising tensions of the Anglo-German Naval Arms Race.

At the same time, the British Army underwent significant modernization under the Army Reforms initiated by Richard Haldane, Secretary of State for War. Haldane, fluent in German and well-versed in German philosophy, maintained strong ties to various German intellectual and political circles. His admiration for German culture granted him a reputation in Berlin as a sympathetic and reliable figure.

Haldane possessed a deep understanding of strategic matters, earning the trust of both Prime Minister Asquith and Foreign Secretary Grey. His familiarity with the intricacies of the Anglo-German naval arms race, along with Britain's military alliances, positioned him as a valuable mediator. Unfortunately, his attempts at establishing peace through the Semi-official Mission of 1912 when serving as Lord Chancellor fell short in alleviating the naval competition tensions between Great Britain and Imperial Germany. While this diplomatic effort did not jeopardize the Entente Alliance, observers in France and Russia remained wary.

The Schlieffen Plan required the Kaiserlacht to invade neutral Belgium. The British Cabinet did not seek war with Imperial Germany, but, to the great surprise of the Germans, Britain honored its neutrality guarantee and upheld its commitments to the Entente Cordiale with France and its understanding with Russia. This ultimately led to its entry into the First World War against Germany in 1914. During this tumultuous period, Winston Churchill emerged as a prominent proponent of British naval dominance and later secured his legacy as a pivotal wartime leader during the Second World War.

Rerouted History

In our alternate history, the sudden emergence of Doggerland in 1900 created an entirely new geopolitical problem that Haldane sees as a strategic opportunity to reduce tensions with Imperial Germany. The vast plain connecting Britain to the continent possessed no historical sovereign and no internationally recognised frontiers. Competing claims by Britain, Germany, the Netherlands and Denmark threatened to transform the region into the greatest territorial dispute in Europe. By the beginning of the second decade of the twentieth century, many feared that a struggle over Doggerland would ignite a continental war even more rapidly than the Balkan crisis.

The sudden emergence of Doggerland in the North Sea during the first decade of the twentieth century confronted Europe with an unprecedented challenge. Rising from the shallow banks between Britain, the Netherlands, Germany, and Denmark, the new landmass altered shipping lanes, fishing grounds, and strategic calculations throughout north-western Europe. Yet what might have become another source of imperial rivalry instead presented an opportunity for statesmanship.

Geologists quickly determined that the land was the remnant of the prehistoric plain that had once connected Britain to the Continent before being submerged thousands of years earlier. Although large areas consisted of salt-saturated marshes and newly exposed seabeds, extensive tracts proved suitable for reclamation. Engineers from Britain, Germany, Denmark, and the Netherlands compared the undertaking to the Dutch polders, and optimism grew that much of Doggerland could be transformed into productive farmland and prosperous ports.

More significantly, surveys had revealed rich fisheries, coal deposits, and potentially vast petroleum reserves beneath the North Sea basin. Economists predicted that an independent Doggerland, controlling access to these resources, could become one of the wealthiest small nations in Europe. The prospect of such riches, however, threatened to turn Doggerland into a flashpoint among the Great Powers.

In 1905, Richard Burdon Haldane implemented military reforms with an entirely different objective from those of our timeline. Although the British Army prepared contingency plans for operations across Doggerland, Haldane believed that military solutions would only guarantee catastrophe. Instead, he sought to prevent the territory from becoming another Alsace-Lorraine. British diplomats quietly proposed that the new landmass should remain permanently neutral and free from fortifications, much as Belgium and Switzerland enjoyed protected status.

France and Russia, Britain's Entente partners, greeted the proposal with suspicion. Paris feared that neutrality would merely allow Germany to dominate the region economically, while St Petersburg regarded the scheme as evidence that Britain wished to pursue an independent understanding with Berlin. Nevertheless, Haldane argued that only international guarantees could prevent Doggerland from becoming the battlefield of Europe.

The Haldane Mission of 1912 therefore took on a very different character. Rather than seeking merely to limit naval construction, Haldane travelled to Berlin with the support of the British Cabinet but without formal Entente backing. His proposal envisioned the creation of a neutral and demilitarised Sovereign Commonwealth of Doggerland administered under international guarantees. The settlement represented one of the last great triumphs of Edwardian diplomacy. Britain, Germany, Denmark, and the Netherlands would recognize the new state, while all permanent fortifications and major troop concentrations would be prohibited. Kaiser Wilhelm II, aware that Germany's own claims risked provoking conflict with Britain and France alike, surprised Europe by accepting the framework.

Although France and Russia reluctantly acquiesced, many politicians in both countries viewed the agreement as a betrayal of the spirit of the Entente. Skeptics noted that Kaiser Wilhelm II possessed an unfortunate talent for placing "his foot in the butter churn" and feared that some impulsive statement or naval demonstration might yet undo the painstaking work of the diplomats. Such concerns proved well founded on several occasions, though Chancellor Bethmann Hollweg and Lord Haldane repeatedly succeeded in preventing royal indiscretions from escalating into crises.

The consequences for European diplomacy proved profound. Anglo-German relations improved considerably, but the Entente itself began to loosen. France increasingly doubted Britain's willingness to support her against Germany, while Russia turned its attention toward its own Balkan ambitions.

By 1914, Europe had evolved into a more fluid balance of powers. When the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand triggered crisis, Britain devoted its energies to preserving the neutrality of Doggerland rather than automatically supporting France. German armies, deprived of any opportunity to exploit the demilitarised territory and confronted with uncertain British intentions, adopted a more cautious strategy.

The resulting war remained largely confined to Central and Eastern Europe and concluded in 1917 through negotiated settlements rather than total victory. Historians later concluded that the existence of neutral Doggerland had denied the belligerents the strategic opportunities necessary for a prolonged struggle.

The Sovereign Commonwealth of Doggerland emerged from the war with its independence strengthened. International commissions supervised its demilitarisation, while Rotterdam, New London, and Wilhelmshaven developed into centers of trade and finance. Possessing four official languages and a constitution inspired by Swiss federalism, Doggerland became one of Europe's most prosperous states. During the ideological struggles of the twentieth century, its neutrality was respected by all sides and its banks, universities and international institutions acquired reputations rivalling those of Geneva.

Environmental consequences also became apparent. The altered North Sea currents weakened the warming influence of the Gulf Stream across Scandinavia and northern Russia. By the 1920s, harsher winters and declining agricultural yields encouraged a gradual southward migration of Scandinavians and Russians. Many settled in the developing towns and reclaimed farmlands of Doggerland, contributing to the country's remarkably cosmopolitan character. Danes, Norwegians, Swedes, Dutch, Germans, Britons, and later Russian emigres all helped shape the identity of the young republic.

Despite periodic tensions and the doubts of pessimists, Doggerland's independence endured. Historians later observed that the settlement represented an unusually optimistic moment in European affairs. Yet they also acknowledged that such optimism, though unfashionable in hindsight, had not been misplaced. By transforming a potential battleground into a prosperous neutral state, the Haldane Agreement demonstrated that diplomacy and shared interests could occasionally prevail over rivalry and suspicion in the years before the Great War.

By the modern day, the Commonwealth of Doggerland stood as one of the principal mediators in European affairs and the headquarters of numerous international organisations.

No major figure was affected more profoundly than Winston Churchill. As First Lord of the Admiralty, he had consistently advocated naval expansion and distrusted German intentions. He regarded Haldane's proposals as dangerously idealistic and warned that neutral Doggerland would eventually favour Berlin. Yet the apparent success of the arrangement deprived Churchill of the great confrontation he had long anticipated. Without a world war involving Britain and without the later rise of Nazi Germany, Churchill never became the embodiment of national resistance. His career instead followed the course of a distinguished but controversial imperial statesman. He served in several cabinets, championed imperial unity and colonial reform, and produced an enormous body of historical and literary works. Revered for his eloquence but often criticised for his pessimism regarding Germany, he retired as an elder statesman rather than a national savior. His Nobel Prize for Literature remained his greatest personal distinction, while Richard Burdon Haldane entered history as the man who transformed the most dangerous territorial question in Europe into the foundation of a durable peace.

Author's Note

In reality, Doggerland remained beneath the North Sea and no sovereignty dispute ever arose. The Haldane Mission of 1912 sought to ease Anglo-German tensions over naval competition but failed to achieve lasting success. Britain remained firmly associated with the Entente and entered the First World War in 1914. Winston Churchill's career was shaped by two world wars and culminated in his leadership of Britain during its darkest hour. The neutral Commonwealth of Doggerland and the diplomatic settlement described above never existed, but they illustrate how geography and diplomacy together might have reshaped the course of the twentieth century.

Guest Post: President Clay and the American Empire of Commerce

This post first appeared on Today in Alternate History with inspiration from History with Jacob and Robbie A. Taylor.

HISTORICAL BACKGROUND:

The Whig's vision of the future was famously described by Daniel Walker Howe in What Hath God Wrought: Transformation of America, 1815-1848, "Rather than dominate through force, the Whigs hoped to establish an American empire of commerce, spreading America's economy and culture by 'expanding trade and Christian missions'."

POINT OF DIVERGENCE: 

Henry Clay, who was a man who had such a massive impact on the United States, never rose to be its leader, despite his many attempts ("I would rather be right than be President"). Whereas, in our post, we imagine that because of a couple of thousand votes in New York and Michigan, Henry Clay's Whig Party defeats James K. Polk and the Democrats in the 1844 presidential election. He sets out to implement his ambitious American System, dramatically altering the course of Manifest Destiny.

15 June 1846 - Oregon boundary dispute resolved by President Clay

In 1846, a bilateral agreement between the United States and Great Britain settled a longstanding dispute over their boundary between British North America and the United States. The border continued along the 49th parallel until the Strait of Georgia, where the marine boundary curved south to exclude Vancouver Island and the Gulf Islands from the United States.

President Henry Clay's diplomatic efforts in the Pacific Northwest were a notable success during his first term. This result was achieved even though he had evinced no interest in the question in line; the Whigs viewed that it was unimportant compared to other domestic problems (bolstering manufacturing and urbanization, the national bank, internal improvements and tariffs), whereas Clay's Democrat opponents had proposed to forcibly end the Oregon Question by annexing the entire area. This disagreement was symptomatic of a larger internal dispute, and more specifically, the Democratic Party's dangerously belligerent approach to westward expansion.

Clay's attention was directed toward an Atlantic-focused nation, which permitted Texas to achieve independence (a compromise agreement peacefully ended the border dispute with no land taken or given) and allowed Mexico's northern regions to prosper. He faced sharp criticism from his former rival, James K. Polk, for failing to seize a crucial opportunity related to Manifest Destiny: America was excluded from the Gold Rush in California. The dream of an expansive American nation extending from "sea to shining sea" conflicted with Clay's goal of an Empire of Commerce. He wanted to establish an America that rivaled Great Britain through economic might, infrastructure, and financial stability. A more cautious man than Polk, he was greatly concerned about the potential spread of slavery to new western territories, which could exacerbate tensions leading to secession and civil war in the South.

Regional interests surely played a part--the different birth states of Clay (Kentucky) and Polk (Tennessee) were behind their very different future visions. In the end, the showdown over slavery was to prove unavoidable causing bloodshed and tragedy for both states. These emerging issues would dominate the troubled presidency of Theodore Frelinghuysen after Clay died of tuberculosis during his second term. Meanwhile, and thanks to lucrative gold revenues, Mexico would develop into a middle-tier power similar to Canada. Her national energies focused on designs connecting the Pacific and Gulf via a canal between the Gila and Rio Grande rivers. She would not pose a threat to the United States but instead becoming a viable emerging economy along the border, gradually evolving into a strategic trading ally for both the Union and also the Confederacy.

AUTHOR'S NOTE:

In reality, the 1844 election result was one of the most consequential in American history. The Whigs saw America's role as setting a democratic example, not an example of conquest but Polk's narrow victory reshaped the nation's course. The treaty would result in Oregon, Idaho, and Washington as present day states.

PROVINE'S ADDENDUM:

By the twentieth century, the United States had a strong economic corridor that connected the Atlantic Ocean through the Great Lakes to Chicago, where it joined the Transcontinental Railroad up to Minneapolis where it headed west across the Rockies to Tacoma, Washington. Canadian fortunes tied strongly to it with shared St. Lawrence River traffic and railroads southward from ranches and farms across Alberta and Saskatchewan. The Mississippi River was another international waterway through the Confederacy, which struggled to industrialize outside of a few pockets along the Alabama River. New Orleans served as the western focus of trade, bringing in trade from all over the world, especially the Texas and Mexico, which cooperated along the Gila-Rio Grande corridor maintained by a clever system of recycling that pumped much-needed water upriver from its locks. With so much of each nation's economy dependent on peace, the nations worked diligently on diplomacy; the US, Confederacy, and Texas each even assured would-be separatists near San Francisco and the Great Salt Lake would never be recognized (despite their own historical declarations of independence founding each of their countries).

When war broke out in Europe, it shattered the North American peace as well. As European nations were distracted, the Confederacy had eyes on seizing Caribbean island colonies. Mexico, which had sought to place itself in leadership of fellow Spanish-speaking countries, demanded the islands be freed rather than seized by another empire. Meanwhile, the United States sought a modernized canal between the Atlantic and Pacific, preferably resurrecting the French attempt in Panama rather than a Mexico-dominated project across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. The Confederacy began a naval war with Mexico, the Republic of California broke away, and the United States used the opportunity to secure a foothold with a breakaway state of Colombia. Texas militarized its borders quickly to remain neutral, though sabotage of the canal threatened war with the Confederacy, including shots fired across the Sabine River. By the time the war ended, new nations had been born with independence movements in California and the Caribbean.

Guest Post: Devil's Grand Bargain struck at the Cecilienhof Palace

This post first appeared on Today in Alternate History.

 At the Potsdam Conference President Harry S. Truman gave Joseph Stalin a deliberately vague, understated notice about the atomic bomb. He later recorded that he told Stalin the United States had "a new weapon of unusual destructive force."

19 July, 1945 -

The alien offer to harvest human experimental samples in exchange for mind control technology was given serious consideration at a top-secret conference meeting in the Cecilienhof Palace.

 Approval was a momentous decision needing to be taken collectively by the leaders of the United Nations at a unique moment in human history. Supreme in their authority over worldwide affairs, they were the victors of a catastrophic global conflict that had left some 85 million people dead, approximately 4% of global population, while narrowing control to a few key humans, perfect for the alien hegemony that had long been observing the barbarous humans as a rabble too big and chaotic to control.

 

The opportunity was certainly appealing to human leaders as well, each for very different reasons but all ultimately linked to the common interest of national security in their spheres of influence. The resource-constrained British imperialists could maintain their far-flung empire, starting with exercising control over the recalcitrant, independent-minded leaders of the Indian National Congress. But first, Churchill had to win over his own left-wing-leaning voters at a general election, the first in ten years, threatening to end Tory domination. The Soviets could cement their domination of Eastern Europe and the upper Far East. Meanwhile, the United States could continue Dollar Diplomacy with well-placed agents operating discreetly in Banana Republics. The broad prospect of a gray-white partnership was a long-term allied continuation of global hegemony, but despite these different applications, they all knew they were opening a Pandora's box. It was near-certain the great powers would also weaponize mind control to battle against each other's strategic interests, if not cut side deals with the grays. For these various reasons, a multilateral agreement was absolutely needed between the Big Four at the Cecilienhof Palace.

Just as the leaders had different potential benefits, they had different attitudes. Always seeing partners as predators, the ever-paranoid Josef Stalin was the most reluctant because he was unwilling to trade future sovereignty for any potential gain. Arguably, he had made this mistake in approving the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, and he had even invited Japanese representatives to the Victory in Europe Parade in Moscow. Characteristically, Churchill had more of a devil-may-care attitude about getting into bed with bad actors. Moreover, after orchestrating the Bengal famine, Gallipoli Landings, and most recently the forced return of Cossack officers to the Soviets, he was more than comfortable with ruthless grandiose decisions. In fact, his only regret was not inviting Jan Smuts to the meeting, the South African General who was the only man to sign the peace treaties ending both world wars, also the only person to have signed the documents forming both the League of Nations and the United Nations. In stark comparison, Truman, who had recently entered the Oval Office and was not read-in on either the involvement with the "gray devils" or the Manhattan Project, now faced an imminent decision to use the atomic bomb on civilian targets. He was also open to the offer, continuing with the groundwork set by his legendary predecessor.

After venturing the cynical observation that "Trust is a category error," Stalin proposed a dastardly way forward. The grays would use mind control technology against the Imperial General Headquarters of the Japanese government. By imposing irreversible defeatism in the minds of these fanatical military decision-makers, the Americans would no longer need to use the atomic bomb, and in exchange, the aliens could harvest a comparable number of surviving victims for the Japanese home islands.

This test case was approved as a win-win in the utmost secrecy, but the truth was soon laid bare. The first human outside of the Allied top leadership to detect the grand bargain was General Douglas MacArthur, the Commander in the Southwest Pacific and Supreme Commander for the Allied Powers. He conducted the signing ceremony of the Japanese Instrument of Surrender on the deck of USS Missouri in Tokyo Bay. Shocked by the uncharacteristic lack of fighting spirit in the dazed-looking Japanese representative, he had been expecting kamikaze aircraft pilots to attack and, instead, encountered sheep rather than wolves.

Like many elite military leaders, MacArthur would never have approved of the use of unethical weapons, either and likely his stance would always have been a problem for civilian leaders. However, his loud-mouthed expression of alarmed concerns started a long-standing struggle within the inner echelons of power. His dissent immediately disqualified him from the opportunity to lead occupied Japan; ironically, his successor had a much easier task once armed with mind control technology.

The belligerent General George Patton (and other diehards) believed Stalin was a bad actor and was of a similar mind to MacArthur before his lethal Jeep accident in December that some found suspicious. By this point, it had become increasingly clear that the United Nations would have to continue to work closely together if it did not wish to lose control of this incredibly dangerous situation. For the time being, the Big Four agreed to form an oversight committee for the Japanese home islands and this would become the model for the Security Council of the United Nations. The ball had surely begun rolling, and as Stalin had feared, this momentum only played into the hands of the aliens. They needed the willing connivance of a world government to operate through in order to colonize the planet.

Provine's Addendum

The main problem with the alien mind control technology was that there were simply too many human minds to attempt to control for wide-scale domination. The control could be used intensively on a small number of people, which was key in winning Truman reelection in 1948 that was so surprising many publications such as Life, Chicago Daily Tribune, and Newsweek had already printed Dewey as the winner. Other uses would continue throughout the years, though there always remained a resistant human suspicion of manipulation. Eisenhower, who became informed of the deal upon his election, went along with it, though he tried to give a coded public warning in his farewell address. JFK, who won his election after the mind control technology proved initially incompatible with television during the botched presidential debate and showed the golden child Richard Nixon as he really was instead of the hypnotic curation the technology provided, grew distrustful of the agreement after the technology again proved unable to restore a capitalist government in Cuba. These fires would be put out through assassinations and other covert operations, and the alien-human leadership worked to expand their control.

This problem of too many humans outpaced improvements in the control technology, demanding other strategies. Economic maneuvering and the ongoing distraction of a Cold War made for some influence while aliens applied further technology to humanity to grow human manufacturing exponentially. With human population also growing exponentially, decisions were made to begin decreasing birthrates among the most controlled populations, typically the industrialized nations. Eventually the spread of mind control technology through digital means via internet-connected smartphones will finally meet the dream of fully controlling the human populace, adding another peaceful, productive jewel to the alien interstellar collective.

--

In reality, alien mind control technology is one of many conspiracy theories about humans being manipulated. 

Guest Post: Would-be Saboteurs Caught aboard La Coubre

This post first appeared on Today in Alternate History.

Historic Background

Following a series of covert operations by the CIA, the explosion of La Coubre was one of the first big events used for propaganda in what soon became the Cold War struggle in the Caribbean. The French cargo ship blew up in Havana harbor while it was unloading 76 tons of grenades and weapons. The new revolutionary government had bought these munitions from Belgium because U.S. supplies of military equipment had ceased, and the Cuban Army had to look elsewhere to supply its army. A huge blast ripped through the ship, and then a second explosion happened as rescuers and bystanders rushed in. Prime Minister Fidel Castro called this "the work of those who do not wish us to receive arms for our defense," blaming the explosion on U.S. sabotage and accusing the CIA of trying to weaken Cuba's defenses. This damning statement made Cuban nationalism even stronger and increased public support for the revolution during its early, uncertain years. It was a turning point as Cuba increasingly turned towards the Soviet Union for economic and military assistance from a man who had once said, "I am not a communist and neither is the revolutionary movement, but we do not have to say that we are anticommunists just to fawn on foreign powers."

March 4, 1960-

Cuban security forces stopped a group of men with sabotage devices from boarding the French freighter La Coubre while it was docked in Havana Harbor. During questioning, the apprehended saboteurs revealed their connections to the CIA, presenting unmistakable evidence of U.S. involvement. They were subsequently showcased at a large rally, bolstering the revolutionary government's standing.

This embarrassing incident occurred during a Presidential election year, creating significant political damage for the Republican Administration. The policy of Eisenhower-Nixon was best described by the U.S. Assistant Secretary of State, Roy Rubuttom, to "Support elements in Cuba opposed to the Castro government while making Castro's downfall seem to be the result of his own mistakes." In their calculation, the rearming of the Cuban Army would prevent the CIA from orchestrating a coup d'état as they recently had to overthrow Jacobo Árbenz in Guatemala. This time their covert operation backfired, particularly in light of a prompt offer of military assistance from the Soviet Union. Worse still, such an unwelcome intervention accelerated the revolutionary movement's outreach across Latin America, supporting various guerrilla efforts.

The Cold War struggle in the Caribbean had begun with the terrifying possibility of Cuba becoming a full ally of the Soviet Union in America's backyard. This was unacceptable to Washington--the longstanding Monroe Doctrine held that any intervention in the political affairs of the Americas by foreign powers was a potentially hostile act against the United States. There was a broader perspective, a symmetry that both superpowers were unable to control satellite states in their sphere of influence. Perhaps in this political reality, there lay a distant opportunity for compromise.

The U.S. certainly faced diplomatic isolation in Latin America by the time a new Democratic administration took office. President John F. Kennedy recognized this unfortunate position in his inaugural address by asserting that "The basic problems facing the world today are not susceptible to a military solution." Signaling a dramatic change of foreign policy, he followed through the very next day by announcing the replacement of Allen Dulles, who had overseen numerous covert activities including the coup d'état in Guatemala (as well as Iran), plus the Project MKUltra, widely condemned as a violation of individual rights and an example of the CIA's abuse of power. He had served throughout the previous eight years, as both the director of Central Intelligence and the head of the CIA. Nevertheless, Kennedy also wanted to remove Castro, and it remained to be seen how much had actually changed.

Author's Note:

In reality, 75 to 100 people were killed, and many were injured. Fidel Castro alleged it was an act of sabotage on the part of the United States, which denied any involvement. Meanwhile, Kennedy kept Dulles in post and authorized him to launch the disastrous Bay of Pigs invasion.

Provine's Addendum:

JFK, as he was popularly known, had to rethink diplomacy quickly. His advisors, including his brother, Robert, determined to lean into the pivot, throwing the blame on former VP Nixon, whom commentators said lost the race for the White House in 1960 for the international black eye in Havana as much as his dubious performance in the first-ever televised presidential debate. Kennedy's administration released extensive top secret documents declassified by executive order, all hand-picked to embarrass Dulles and Nixon as a covert faction within American democracy, saying their relationship began as Dulles covered up connections of Nazi German clients with Nixon's support. The hounding grew to the point in 1962 that Nixon left the country for an extensive speaking tour, telling a press conference, "They don't have Nixon to kick around any more."

Meanwhile, JFK looked back toward another Republican, William H. Taft, for methods aligning with the old "dollar diplomacy" strategy. Relations with Cuba reformed under the Kennedy administration recognizing the new government, and Castro was eager to accept the loans and aid Kennedy offered, making energetic speeches about the potential future. American businesses invested, too, thanks to promises of incentives from both the U.S. and Cuban governments. The Cuban economy skyrocketed for a time with new canneries and wide agricultural development, but soon American attention turned toward Southeast Asia, and the money began to dry up. Debts mounted, and Castro's regime would find itself dependent on the U.S. for aid keeping up with a population troubled by layoffs and rusting equipment without a market.

Guest Post: Mayflower Compact Removes the King

This post first appeared on Today in Alternate History.



November 21, 1620-

Background

In 1620, the governing document of Plymouth Colony was signed by forty-one Pilgrim Fathers aboard the Mayflower, an English sailing ship owned and captained by English merchants, most notably Captain Christopher Jones. The passengers had financing from the London Virginia Company and other merchant investors. They had a patent to settle near the Hudson River, within the northern boundary of the Virginia Colony, but circumstance and weather had made them renegades. Differing from their contemporary Puritans (who sought to reform and purify the Church of England), the Pilgrims chose to separate themselves from the Church of England, which forced them to pray in private. They believed that its resistance to reform and Roman Catholic past left it beyond redemption. They anchored in Provincetown Harbor at the northern tip of Cape Cod. Fortuitously, this location was north of its intended destination - being outside the territory granted by the patent, this created a legal grey area - which is why the people aboard the Mayflower needed a formal document to establish self-government and avoid lawlessness.

The passengers, who were primarily Puritans, other Protestant Separatists, adventurers, and tradesmen, created the Mayflower Compact as a brief but essential agreement. Although the Compact included a pledge of loyalty to the King ("We, whose names are underwritten, the Loyal Subjects of our dread Sovereign Lord King James, by the Grace of God, of Great Britain, France, and Ireland, King, Defender of the Faith, &c. Having undertaken for the Glory of God, and Advancement of the Christian Faith, and the Honour of our King and Country, a Voyage to plant the first Colony in the northern Parts of Virginia"), its signers were dissatisfied with the Church of England's state, the limited progress of the English Reformation, and King James I's unwillingness to implement further reforms.

In our timeline, the Mayflower Compact faded from direct use - superseded by more formal colonial charters and largely forgotten until the 18th century, when it was rediscovered and mythologized. Instead of fading into symbolic value, the Compact could have been amended or expanded into a broader set of laws and institutions - like a proto-constitution. In our alternate history timeline, it is an expression of protest that evolved from a brief covenant into a living charter of governance that adapted with the colony's growth.

Re-routed History

One of those Separatists, an unknown republican radical, convinced the others to remove a pledge of loyalty to the King, compelling them with fervent words: "Sign! If the next moment, the gibbet's rope is around your neck! Sign! If the next moment this hall rings with the echo of the falling axe! Sign! By all your hopes in life or death- as husbands, as fathers, as men - sign your names to the parchment or be accursed forever!"

This agreement marked a radical break with English political norms - essentially turning the document from a mutual civil covenant into a declaration of proto-independence. Once ashore, the leaders of Plymouth formed a proto-constitution that formalized election procedures, a Bill of Rights, and rules for succession and amendment. In one sense, the revision hardly mattered because the English Crown had no intention of formally recognizing the document as a valid charter. This denial backfired, as the settlers steadfastly refused to accept a royal charter as the enduring foundational law of the colony.

Inevitably, the settlers' protest would be suppressed by the Crown. However, instead of being viewed as naïve for removing the pledge of loyalty to the King, these brave men had created an enduring foundation of liberty. Their protest would lead to the formation of a "League of Compact Colonies," rooted in covenanted self-rule, which turned the Compact into a regional constitution.

Author's Note:

According to a popular story, on July 4, 1776, the delegates at the Continental Congress were finally convinced to sign the Declaration of Independence by a rousing speech made by an "unknown patriot," who exhorted the delegates. This story is widely considered a work of historical fiction. It appeared in George Lippard's Washington and His Generals; Or, Legends of the Revolution. According to Anna Berkes referencing American National Biography, Lippard "wrote many semi-fanciful 'legends' of American history, mythologizing the founding fathers and retelling key moments of the American Revolution so vividly that several of the legends ... became part of American folklore." The story was further popularized by Manly P. Hall, a writer and mystic, who used it in a lecture published in The Secret Destiny of America. Ronald Reagan also later used the story in his commencement speech at Eureka College on June 7, 1957. Both Hall and Reagan claimed that the story is related in Thomas Jefferson's records, but no such story has ever been found in Jefferson's writings.

Provine's Addendum:

While the Pilgrims considering themselves legally part of the Virginia colony, the settlers at Jamestown were unimpressed until seeing their written agreements of rights pertaining to work agreements, land ownership, and representation, especially the Polish craftsmen who had initially been denied the right to vote in elections for the House of Burgesses but won full rights with the first strike in American history. Representatives from Massachusetts arrived to participate in the House, a practice followed soon with settlers further north in New Hampshire and then Maryland, many of them Catholics who enjoyed the religious freedoms. More colonies came into the Virginia system, creating a united front with enough political might to elect its own President, wealthy Virginia planter Nathaniel Bacon, in 1676, an office that would cooperate with (and ultimately supersede) the Crown-appointed governor. A century on, a few radicals calling for independence from Britain were a laughable lot, since issues of taxation and encroachment on native lands could be handled readily at home and with liaisons in London.

Guest Post: Germans Counter Vistula-Oder Offensive

This article first appeared on Today in Alternate History with input from Allen W. McDonnell, Mike McIlvain, and Jeff Provine.

In our timeline, after the battles along the Scheldt, a lull at the front allowed Germany to assemble thirty well-prepared divisions. In evaluating how to best utilize this force, Hitler devised an ill-fated plan: he intended to launch these troops against the Western Front in a bid for a quick victory. The aim of Operation Watch on the Rhine was to gain momentum for negotiating a peace agreement with the Western Allies, after which Germany could fully concentrate on its efforts against the USSR.

Whereas in this alternate history scenario, we imagine that Hitler dies of a fatal stroke in late 1944, and his successors abandon Operation Watch on the Rhine to launch a different counter-offensive in the East, Operation Watch on the Vistula.


Jan 20, 1945 -

The Red Army launched a large offensive along the Vistula River in central Poland after favorable weather conditions were forecasted. This strategic thrust for the River Oder in Germany, located just 40 miles from Berlin, was made possible by the stunning success of Operation Bagration that created a significant Soviet bridgehead over the Vistula in the area of Baranów with the front continuing south to Jasło.

The main Axis defense was German Army Group A, which had recently been reinforced with thirty well-prepared divisions from the West. Previously, there were three outnumbered armies within this group: the 9th Army, deployed around Warsaw; the 4th Panzer Army, situated opposite the Baranów salient in the Vistula Bend; and the 17th Army to their south. In command was Colonel-General Josef Harpe, recipient of the Knight's Cross of the Iron Cross with Oak Leaves and Swords. A brave man, his instructions were terrifyingly clear: destroy the Baranów salient and protect the Reich's capital. It was the tallest order since 1914 when Hindenburg and Ludendorff had been sent to East Prussia to confront the Russian steamroller.

The political objective of Operation Watch on the Vistula was far more complex and arguably even less realistic. After the Führer's death in late 1944, the leadership group, comprising his former inner circle, was led by Göring, Himmler and Bormann. These successors were constantly vying for control, but they shared the common belief that German interests lay in surrendering to the Western Allies. Their new strategy required a defensive posture on the Eastern front. As envisaged by this plan, Germany and ideally free buffer states in Hungary, Bohemia, and Western Poland would have to fall to occupation by the Western Allies while German Army Group A held back Soviet forces in Poland. This would allow time to explore various end-game contingencies: pursue negotiations via the neutral Swedes, trade safe passage in exchange for the exclusive transfer of advanced rocket technology, fight alongside the Western Allies against the Soviets or worse case a flight to South America with or without the assistance of Director of the OSS in Switzerland, Allen Dulles.

Stalin clearly understood these strategic goals, as his thrust for the River Oder aimed to acquire advanced rocket technology, control all of Poland, and seize as much German territory as possible to create a satellite buffer zone in Eastern Europe. Unfortunately for him, the additional firepower from the thirty-division reinforcements enabled Harpe to inflict a significant setback on the Red Army, resulting in considerable losses in manpower and resources. By the end of February, as the thaw set in and tanks became bogged down in Poland, the situation returned to where it had started. On the Western front, there was also good news, as the Germans executed a courageous fighting retreat - a faster 'pullout' withdrawal being logistically impossible. The Wehrmacht put up just enough resistance to slow the Allied advance without significantly depleting the manpower or supplies needed on the Eastern Front.

Meanwhile, German refugees were evacuated in a reversal of the lebensraum concept that had driven Barbarossa. The heads of government for the Big Three (Stalin, FDR & Churchill) met in Yalta to try to synchronise their plans for moving forward in this radically changed landscape. Delegates from neutral Sweden would attend, carrying peace proposals from Berlin. Because the Empire of Japan had launched their own bid for conditional surrender, Operation Ichi-Go, there was the prospect of creating a roadmap for peace with the Axis. In outline, this would grant some form of limited clemency to the defeated leadership in exchange for the immediate end of hostilities.

The Big Three were certainly willing to walkback the unconditional surrender condition they had stipulated at the Casablance Conference, particularly since Stalin had not even been in attendance. He was less willing to reduce his ambitions for a Soviet sphere of influence up to the Baltic States (Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia), Belarus, Ukraine and Eastern Poland. The dying FDR surely believed he could work with the Soviets within his vision for the United Nations, but Churchill strongly disagreed. His intention was to "impose the will of the United States and the UK upon the Soviets" and indeed had asked his general staff to prepare war plans for "Operation Unthinkable." If the Western Allies could capture and occupy Germany, Bohemia, Hungary, and Western Poland, this would put them in a strong position; if Germany surrendered at the Vistula in central Poland, then this would essentially be a fait accompli.

An unexpected variable was the sudden demise of FDR, a tragic event that brought to power Harry Truman. He was far less trusting of Stalin, emboldened with the knowledge that the atomic bomb project was fast approaching conclusion. At Potsdam, he threatened Stalin with the stark warning that the United States had a "new weapon of unusual destructive force" without specifying that it was an atomic bomb. In a sense, the German capitulation only 'opened the wound,' bringing forward the disputes about the shape of post-war Europe, requiring the United Nations to make an unequal agreement before settling with the Axis...

Author's Note:

In reality, the Western Allies stopped around the Elbe River, allowing the USSR to take Berlin and much of Eastern Europe. The Vistula-Oder offensive obliterated Army Group A, advancing over 300 miles in just over two weeks - a remarkable pace. The offensive was brought forward from 20 to 12 January because meteorological reports warned of a thaw later in the month, and the tanks needed hard ground for the offensive. It was not done to assist American and British forces during the Battle of the Bulge, as Stalin chose to claim at Yalta. Meanwhile, the attack in the West did not succeed, despite being a significant blow to the Allies and the bloodiest battle of World War II for the United States. The assault was halted more quickly than anticipated and ultimately repelled. The Germans failed to achieve any meaningful breakthrough. Even if the attack had been successful, there was no possibility that the US and UK would sign a separate peace. By that time, they were committed to ending the war only with the unconditional surrender of Germany, as agreed upon at the Casablanca Conference in 1943. Therefore, the entire purpose of the attack was rendered irrelevant.

Provine's Addendum:

Following the conclusion of hostilities with Germany, the Allies turned their attention to the Far East. That fall, Japan surrendered following the Americans' atomic bomb as well as USSR declaration of war and invasion of Manchuria. American General George C. Marshall arrived as a special envoy to China; initially, he had hoped to broker peace between the Kuomitang and Communists, but anti-Soviet sentiment and Chiang Kai-Shek's vow to eliminate communism in China prompted a faster course of action with establishing formal borders along the occupation zones, creating North China and South China much like East and West Poland. An "Iron Curtain" fell across Europe and Asia, but the Western powers were far more concerned with recovery and de-colonizing in a way that continued to benefit the home countries. There seemed to be no need of a race into space with American rocket superiority decades more advanced nor wars to halt any theory of nations falling like dominoes since no one seemed able to tip beyond the curtain. The "Cold War" was just that--borders frozen until the fall of communism some fifty years later.