Oct 19, 1781 -
An outright victory at the Capes would have enabled Lord Howe to deliver much-needed supplies and reinforcements to Cornwallis, breaking the siege of Yorktown. Instead, his diminished naval force only had the resources necessary for the evacuation of the 7,000-man British army trapped in Virginia.
As it turned out, that near-miraculous escape would be just enough for a British strategic victory. Liberty was denied by the timely actions of the Tories, who squeaked out an eventual victory in North America. The outcome had rested on a knife-edge; the reasons were many and varied, but the main one was money. The naval reforms of Lord Dover had allowed for a sufficient number of ships-of-the-line in European waters as well as on the North American station. This had enabled Lord Howe to knock the French out of the war, and indeed the Battle of Chesapeake was to be their last meaningful involvement in the conflict. If Cornwallis was humiliated by this outcome, then he could at least cling to the greater damage to the patriot cause: the talismanic General George Washington had been killed by misadventure after preparing to fire off the first cannonball at the besieged British rearguard.
At least fate, if not competence, was with the Tories, but otherwise their poor decision to build a defensible deep-water port was a strategic mis-step, badly mistaken both politically and militarily. It created a stand-off at a delicate moment when playing the long game would have been the smarter option. The Whigs, who were sympathetic to the Colonialists, had taken control of the British Parliament and passed a motion of "No Offensive Action in North America," now actively looking for an out. The Bourbon treasury, meanwhile, was exhausted, and the French involvement since Saratoga would only continue to be funded after a signature victory at Yorktown. Instead, confidence collapsed, and the French withdrew from the war to stop violent revolution from coming to their own backyard.
Victory had been cruelly snatched from the Patriots, and at least in the short term their military initiative was finished. The Tories' dastardly scheme of a peaceful settlement was diplomacy, to negotiate trade deals individually with each of their thirteen former colonies. Since they had taken out vast loans in Europe, the would-be "Americans" also had a major financial problem to solve. This end-game would avoid the cost of keeping 10,000 British troops stationed in North America, also preventing the rise of an independent, unified nation. For the British, it was a costly win-win, but this anti-climactic ending would only ensure the end of the Revolutionary War, but not the end of the Revolution.
Author's Note:
In reality, the surrender at Yorktown was a decisive victory for the Patriots that prompted the British government to negotiate an end to the conflict.
Provine's Addendum:
The insurrection in North America may have ended, but historians point to it as and indication of humanism demanding rights for the individual in the face of empire. Successful governments, such as the British and French, reacted appropriately with Parliament adding seats for qualifying colonies to end the "no taxation without representation issue" and France began extensive reforms to roll back the authoritarianism of the Louis XIV era. Spain and Portugal struggled with a few uprisings, but ultimately the idea of independence had been ended with the experiment in the British American colonies. Across the nineteenth century, more reforms worldwide would gradually end slavery, give political rights to women, and set up marginal self-rule for territories such as the German states, Ireland, and local colonial authorities.
With sprawling empires affirmed, the European nations quickly gobbed up Asia and Africa and then turned on each other for more territory. The collapse of the Ottoman Empire led to Britain, France, and Russia eagerly setting up protectorates. Late-comers such as Italy tried to carve out their own pieces, but they themselves would soon be absorbed in the German-speaking-led coalition centered in Austria. Diplomacy and sheer weight kept the empires from attempting to annihilate their European bases, instead trading colonies here and there along with long-lasting naval campaigns. Increasingly complicated treaties and leagues prompted the rulers to establish an ongoing international summit in neutral Switzerland, independent since a botched French invasion. By the late twentieth century, it became clear that, for empires to grow further, the next steps would need to be upon planets beyond Earth.
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