This post first appeared on Today in Alternate History.
By 1937,
all of the Great Powers were prepared to give up on non-intervention in
the Spanish Civil War. The Republic's Prime Minister Juan Negrín forced
the issue with a formal request to the League of Nations in Geneva.
This request was considered by the League's Political Committee that
publicly acknowledged the "failure of non-intervention," recognizing
General Franco's Nationalists as belligerents.
This
starkly apparent reality had been recognized a week earlier at a
multilateral diplomatic conference held in Nyon, Switzerland. It began
once it was clear the Non-Intervention Agreement was
not preventing Italian and German aid to the Nationalists. The United
Kingdom and France led the conference, which was also attended by
Bulgaria, Egypt, Greece, Romania, Turkey, the Soviet Union and
Yugoslavia. Their collective goal was to use naval forces to impose the
embargo because Mussolini's Italy had been carrying out unrestricted
submarine warfare. In an incredible show of joint strength, their final
conference agreement accused Italy directly. In so doing, the British
delegation got ahead of themselves, encouraging Negrín to call for
intervention, a premature action that would disastrously backfire.
Despite
all evidence to the contrary, elements of the Tory Caucus clung to the
delusional belief that Fascist Italy was a diplomatic conduit with Nazi
Germany that could personally influence the situation due to Mussolini
and Hitler's close personal relationship. However, the Italian-Ethiopian
War created enormous tensions after the British tried in vain to
persuade Mussolini to submit the dispute to the League of Nations.
British newspapers overwhelmingly demanded that Winston Churchill be
made a member of the Cabinet, the Daily Telegraph declaring "That one
who has so firm a grasp of the realities of European politics should not
be included in the Government must be as bewildering to foreigners as
it is regrettable to most of his own countrymen."
Now
into his third term of office at Downing Street, Stanley Baldwin
reluctantly chose to temporarily stay on as Prime Minister, taking the
incredibly brave decision to appoint Churchill as Foreign Secretary,
overlooking the younger Minister of Affairs, Antony Eden who was only
thirty-eight years old. Baldwin's misjudgement was that Eden would curb
the excesses of Churchill's over-bold character but at the same time
satisfy the country's demand for a robust Foreign Policy spokesman.
Baldwin's intention was to use Winston to coerce Mussolini back into the
fold, but the recalcitrant Churchill was far more concerned that
Hitler's "air bridge" in southern Spain provided the decisive element
that would allow the Nationalists to quickly take over the country.
Il
Duce was enraged, over-reacting to the wording of the final agreement
to the Nyon Conference by committing full support to the Nationalists
with the enthusiastic support of Nazi Germany. But almost nobody in
Great Britain wanted the Spanish Civil War to widen to a general
conflict, leading to a fierce public reaction and the drama of an
emergency debate in the House of Commons. The most damaging allegation
of Government Policy was that Churchill's provocative multilateral
attempts had undermined collective security in the League of Nations.
The inevitable result was that Baldwin had to take the painful decision
to replace Churchill with Eden. Baldwin himself would resign shortly
afterwards, making way for his Chancellor of the Exchequer, Neville
Chamberlain a full-throated advocate of appeasement who rashly promised
the country "peace in our time."
Allen W. McDonnell's Addendum
Following
the termination of the Non-Intervention Agreement, Great Britain and
France shipped a million bolt action rifles to Negrin's Republican
Government. However, Fascist Italy shipped Franco's Nationalists a
hundred thousand semi-automatic rifles. This superior rifle technology,
the Breda PG chambered for 7mmx54mm Spanish Mauser, enabled the
Nationalists to win the Spanish Civil War eighteen months sooner than
OTL. This POD led Hitler to order a switch over of the German military
to semi-automatic rifles and when the Second World War broke out in
1939, the Axis Powers were victorious over the Allies and USSR by
December 1941. This conclusion meant no Pearl Harbor because Japan does
not dare start a war when Europe is peaceful and there are no
distractions for the USA.
OTL,
the only country that bought the bolt action rifles from Italy was
Costa Rica OTL and they lived it. Most of central and South America
including Cuba used the 7mm Spanish Mauser from 1895-to 1955. Italy was
supposed to adopt it for their soldiers before WW II but corruption and
incompetent leaders in the Army blocked it until the manufacturer gave
up. As a result, Italy went into the war using surplus World War One
rifles just like Germany and UK did.
Author's Note
In reality, the Daily Telegraph article
quoted was published two years later and the Nyon Conference did not
accuse Italy directly; instead, the attacks were referred to as "piracy"
by an unidentified body.
British Foreign
Secretary Anthony Eden would end up resigning from his post. Mussolini
scoffed at him publicly as "the best-dressed fool in Europe." This was
after he had grudgingly tried to protect non-intervention in the
Anglo-Italian meeting with the argument of avoiding escalation into a
European-wide conflict.
The General Secretary of the Trades
Union Congress, Walter Citrine, recalled a conversation he had had with
Baldwin on 5 April 1943: "Baldwin thought his [Churchill's] political
recovery was marvelous. He, personally, had always thought that if war
came Winston would be the right man for the job."
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