Guest Post: Secretary of War Kitchener Resigns from the Cabinet

This post first appeared on Today in Alternate History.


June 3, 1916 -

On this fateful day in alternate history, Herbert Kitchener, 1st Earl Kitchener, resigned from his Cabinet position as Secretary of War.

The mistaken choice of Britain's ageing, last military hero was a panic measure taken to assuage public fear when the Liberal Government's ultimatum to Germany was ignored. Considered unsuitable for Chief of General Staff and too old for BEF Commander, Prime Minister Herbert Asquith offered him a political role that ill-suited him for exactly the same reasons Asquith had refused to appoint him Viceroy of India three years earlier. As a precondition for accepting the position, he insisted on being an apolitical figure that would not be expected to publicly defend the Government's record. Ultimately, circumstances would make this impossible because the stakes were too high for him to take isolated decisions from inside in the War Office; to maintain morale they would have to be vigorously defended in the public arena.

At issue was his accountability in a modern democracy to the voting population rather than his orders from a chain of command or, more accurately, the mission parameters. A Victorian-era dinosaur, he wrongly considered his foremost loyalty was to the King, and indeed it was to the King that he had lobbied for the position of Viceroy. When this was firmly declined by Secretary of State for India John Morley, Kitchener obtained permission to refuse the consolidation prize of the commander of Malta. By this stage, the monarch was only a ceremonial figure, and Kitchener was caught out of step with the modern democracy, having spent his career overseas serving as a senior British Army officer and colonial administrator in the British Empire, a long way from the liberal politics of Westminster. Disconnected, the other problems were he held the War Office in open contempt and, being an introspective figure, had a major flaw in communicating critical pieces of information.

A bad early omen was the death of his former boss, Lord Roberts of Kabul and Kandahar. "Bobs" died of pneumonia while visiting Indian troops at the BEF base in St Omer, France, on 14 November 1914. Meanwhile, BEF Commander Sir John French had been particularly angry that Kitchener had arrived wearing his field marshal's uniform. By the end of the year, French thought that Kitchener had "gone mad" and his hostility had become common knowledge at HQ.

Regardless of whether Asquith also intended for him to be a ceremonial figure, Kitchener used his considerable ability to set about organizing the British Army with great vigor. Key staffing decisions such as holding back officers for training were inspired, but his man-management skills were overwhelmed with the larger problems of scaling up munition supply. Within twelve months the war effort, which he himself admitted was a "grand experiment," hit a brick wall during the Shells Crisis. The leak to media was made by Sir John French, who bore a grudge against Kitchener for insisting the BEF fight in the First Battle of the Marne. This crisis resulted in the appointment of David Lloyd-George, a "peppery fellow" who had been sharply critical of his grand-standing ever since the Second Boer War. DLG became Minister of Munitions as well as Chancellor of the Exchequer, while Kitchener was stripped of his role as owner of the war-time strategy. This reshuffle was a reversion to the military reforms of 1904, which safeguarded civilian control of military matters, demonstrating that the bygone era of Marlborough and Wellington had long since passed. His reputation was further damaged by his mishandling of the Gallipoli Landings even though Winston Churchill at the Admiralty oddly took the majority of the blame.

The famous finger-pointing at the British public was now pointed straight back at him. Whereas Kitchener had failed to understand popular liberal opinion over his inhuman mistreatment of the Dervishes or Boers, public anger over British casualties was impossible to ignore especially after the disastrous Battle of the Somme, the grimmest moment in the history of the British Army. A failed vote of censure in the House of Commons over his running of the War Department was the beginning of the end. Most damagingly, Kitchener had ordered two million rifles from various US arms manufacturers, but only 480 of these rifles had arrived. The number of shells supplied was no less paltry despite the determined efforts he had made to secure alternative supplies.

Kitchener correctly foresaw a three-million-man volunteer army because conscription was considered politically unacceptable by the British cabinet. The tragedy was that he alone had foreseen a long conflict of up to five years, but even he had not anticipated the horrors of trench warfare. Adherence to the strict timings of seven-day bombardments by artillery and attacks on the half-hour removed the element of surprise, and the German machine guns cut down waves of attacking British soldiers. The final nail in the coffin was when conscription finally began when the British government passed the Military Service Act in January 1916. The act specified that single men aged eighteen to forty years old were liable to be called up for military service unless they were widowed with children or were ministers of religion. Despite unrealistic high hopes, Kitchener had lost the public's confidence in military control of the conflict and the ruthless culture of blood-letting in high command finally reached all the way to the very top.

Always more popular overseas than at home, the Canadian city of Berlin, Ontario, named in respect to a large German immigrant settler population, was renamed Kitchener following a referendum only two weeks earlier. With the public perception of "lions led by donkeys," the ever-ambitious Welsh firebrand Lloyd-George replaced him as the new Secretary of State for War and was already eyeing Downing Street. The wider problem was public trust because Kitchener's resignation triggered a wave of defeatism. This ultimately would lead to the signing of the Treaty of Potsdam with the Central Powers. Meanwhile, Kitchener would live the rest of his life on Hinson's Island, which was owned by his nephew, Major H.H. Hap Kitchener, who had married a Bermudian. Like the masses of young men he had sent to their death, he would be buried overseas in "a corner of a foreign field that is forever England."

Author's Note:

In reality, Kitchener was among 737 who drowned when the HMS Hampshire struck a German mine 1.5 miles (2.4 km) west of Orkney, Scotland, and sank. His great fame, the suddenness of his death, and its apparently convenient timing for a number of parties gave almost immediate rise to a number of conspiracy theories about his death.

Provine's Addendum:

With the end of the World War in 1917, a second American president won a Nobel Peace Prize for mediation with Woodrow Wilson following after Theodore Roosevelt in 1906 in efforts of bringing an end to the Russo-Japanese War. Wilson's presence in truth was largely ceremonial and allowed the honor of all parties to be maintained, despite Wilson's bold initiatives and outlining Fourteen Points that he hoped would establish lasting peace. Kaiser Wilhelm II was arguably the greatest winner of a no-win situation, but German confidence in royalty had declined along with the rest of Europe's, shifting Wilhelm's authority more toward ornament than practical governmental action. Germany found itself in a difficult new position rebuilding along with the rest of central Europe while the Russian Empire faced bitter revolts in the east and a Great Flu pandemic swept across the world. Through the decades, Germany became the leader of continental Europe propping up Russia during its long overdue reforms while Britain and France turned toward their attentions to maintaining their empires overseas. Japan's rapid industrialization and expansion into eastern continental Asia and Southeast Asia, challenging British, French, Dutch, and American colonial authorities already present along with Russian territory beyond Siberia. Military advisers across the world agreed, "the next great war will be in the Pacific."

Guest Post: Tokyo Raid Dominates the Skyline

This post first appeared on Today in Alternate History with input from Allen W. McDonnell, Robbie A. Taylor, Eric Oppen, and Thomas Wm. Hamilton.


April 18, 1942 -

Admiral Yamamoto feared that the surprise attack on Pearl Harbor would "awaken a sleeping giant". But due to a twist of fate, the consequences would prove to be far worse as the Soviet Union, British Empire, and Free China combined forces with the United States, assisting the Americans in seeking to wreak their revenge.

Japan had established the puppet state of Mengjiang, which bordered the Soviets, while the two countries were not at war. Stalin had major problems in the west from the German invasion and was heavily dependent on supplies coming in to the Far East via Vladivostok. Consequently, it was only a wild card factor that gained Soviet support for Lt-Col James Doolittle's Tokyo Raid. A significant ship from the Soviet Pacific fleet had been on a port call to Pearl Harbor, where it was destroyed in the Japanese attack. This was a terrible mistake since the Japanese had been soundly defeated by the Soviets in a Border War, prior to a 1939 ceasefire. Unafraid of Japanese reprisals, Stalin secretly gave his approval for the US Navy aircraft carrier USS Hornet to deliver a substantial force of B-25B Mitchell medium bombers to Vladivostok.

Without this logistical assistance, Doolittle would have had to have led a smaller force launching at sea from the Hornet itself. Instead, the Raid by a much larger force created a reciprocal amount of significant damage at the very top end of President Roosevelt's expectations. The impact on the Japanese high command was hugely disproportional. The fact that the bombers arrived unexpectedly and unopposed was another brick kicked from the foundations of their outpost perimeter defense.

Moreover, there were wider consequences that Chiang Kai-shek partly foresaw - after all, he was most familiar having fought the Japanese Empire the longest. He correctly anticipated a realignment of naval forces with most analysts suggesting the northern Pacific and even into the Bering Sea to cut off supply routes to Russia. But, to protect the Home Islands, instead the Japanese set about punishing the United States with further revenge attacks on America's west coast.

Americans were deeply worried about the "still very badly undermanned west coast" and Chief of Staff George Marshall discussed a "possible attack by the Japanese upon our plants in San Diego and then a flight by those Japs down into Mexico after they have made their attack." Marshall's visit would foreshadow the San Diego Raid, a second Pearl Harbor-style attack which would bring the Second World War to American shores. The costs to Japan were far greater than the momentary political benefits being that America was fully on a war footing and with radar tracking in San Diego spotting the raid.

Author's Note:

In reality, the Bombers were launched from the USS Hornet, and Johnson speculated from China where the crews landed. Eight US aviators were captured by Japanese forces, and three of these were later executed. All but one of the B-25s were destroyed in crashes, while the 16th landed at Vladivostok.

The consequences of the Doolittle Raid were most severely felt in China, where Japanese reprisals caused the deaths of 250,000 civilians and 70,000 soldiers. Nevertheless, Chiang Kai-shek awarded the raiders China's highest military decorations, and predicted (in his diary) that Japan would alter its goals and strategy as a result of the disgrace. Indeed, the raid was a shock to the staff at Japanese Imperial General Headquarters. As a direct consequence, Japan attacked territories in China to prevent similar shuttle bombing runs.

Provine's Addendum:

Japanese forces did indeed realign their attacks, which had been primarily southward in the first five months of the war in the Pacific as they seized the Philippines in December, 1941, and the Dutch East Indies in January, 1942. Following the declaration of war on the USSR in late April, Japan shifted its attention northward, determining to follow a defensive strategy in the south. An altercation in the Coral Sea in May, 1942, was an Allied victory, although only minor Japanese ships were sunk since larger carriers had been shifted northward. The Japanese forces dug in at Port Moresby and New Britain proved to the Allies that every inch of ground would need to be won with blood. Japan, meanwhile, laid siege to Vladivostok and achieved an overwhelming victory at Midway Atoll thanks to additional ships. Yamamoto, who had been too busy in the north to review defenses in the south, reevaluated their submarine doctrine to align with German Wolfpack U-boat tactics that devastated American supply lines to Russia.

The Pacific Theater continued as a grueling grind of bloody invasions and never-ending cat-and-mouse naval sorties. Even after the lackluster results of the Battle of San Diego, Japanese bombers struck Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, and Vancouver attempting to continue psychological warfare. Experimental Japanese high-level balloons attempted to firebomb forests and poison herds with anthrax, but the damage was minimal in scope and the US government kept the public from panic with coverups. World attention was mostly focused on Africa where the Allies made some gains and Eastern Europe, where Stalin's forces fought on desperately with fewer and fewer supplies. Long-term industrial investments proved necessary, spurring the UK and US to send engineers to Siberia in hopes of opening new mining and manufacturing.

By 1945, the Allies had taken Europe, but Japan still held much of the Far East. The US's new weapon, an atomic bomb, proved to be an opportunity to end the war early. Long-range flights reminiscent of the Doolittle Raid dropped bombs in a first wave in August at Hiroshima, Nagasaki, and Tokyo on the 15th. Japan refused to yield despite the devastation, leading to a "return to the countryside" strategy to protect its populace by spreading out and decentralizing industry while continuing production. The bombings continued into 1946 with smaller yield bombs effective at destroying clustered surface fleets with smaller craft sunk and sailors bathed in radiation on ships large enough to withstand a blast. Finally, almost a year after the fall of Berlin, the Japanese Empire capitulated.

The effects of nuclear war became apparent, especially as the American Baby Boom also saw disfigurations due to fallout carried on prevailing winds (including the recently discovered jet streams). One of the early decisions of the fledgling United Nations was to ban atomic weapons completely, a move lauded by scientists and the public alike. While leaders like Churchill felt Communism would be the next looming enemy, the Allied effort in boosting USSR production also brought along a wave of demand for consumerist items like Coca-Cola. Stalin himself capitalized on giving the people what they wanted, securing his legacy as a champion of hope in the darkest times and a gift-giver in times of plenty. Today Ded Moroz (often called "Russian Santa Claus") is depicted with a mustache and not a beard in a portrayal of Stalin.

Guest Post: PM Reynaud issues the Algiers Declaration

This post first appeared on Today in Alternate History, asking "what if Third Republic had fought on after the fall of France?" co-written with Allen W. McDonnell.

June 21, 1940 -

The incomparable Prime Minister of the Third Republic Paul Reynaud declared his intention to fight on from the new capital of Algiers where his embattled government would continue to direct the war effort and govern Free France.

With a growing sense of defeatism in the air, Reynaud had followed the hawkish advice of his recently appointed Undersecretary for War, Charles de Gaulle, who had recommended a withdrawal to North Africa. The only alternative was capitulation; other military figures were urging surrender, while some politicians the formation of a government-in-exile, essentially following the same route as other defeated nations whose ministers were now based in London, England. Given the risk of reprisals on the mainland, Reynaud's decision was certainly bold, taken for the glory of France and perhaps motivated by a fear of kicking their heels in London for the duration of the war.

The implications of this decision would last for decades. Whereas Winston Churchill had offered Reynaud a Franco-British Union to fight on, Reynaud decided to take a very different, more patriotic, route that would eventually see Algeria fully integrated into a modern bi-continental, multi-faith state. A blended economic super-power, rich in oil reserves and Western technology, by the millennium she would become the eighth largest populated country in the world.

Rewarded for his courageous stand, Reynaud would be strongly supported by the British Empire and the still-neutral United States. The Third Republic had millions of dollars of military goods on order from the USA preparing to ship across the Atlantic now re-directed for delivery to Casablanca. She would use her New World colonies as collateral to get the needed bank loans until Congress voted to extend lend-lease arrangements to the government in Algeria. Meanwhile, de Gaulle, as the newly appointed Minister of War, gathered up colonial French forces from around Africa and the Americas along with escaping naval and army units from France proper. Forging these diverse forces into an effective modern military took months, but, by April 1941, they were advancing into Italian territory using American Garand rifles and British food and medical supplies.

Meanwhile, Reynaud focused his efforts on political development, taking the courageous step of granting full voting rights to Algerian Muslims. Ironically, this was a historic decision that the electorate of occupied France would have surely vetoed. Yet another problem was the status of other members of the French Union. Algeria and her three departments were a formal part of Metropolitan France, but Tunisia and Morocco were protectorates, and Indochina and Polynesia, etc., had their own local governance structures. Ultimately, some progressive steps were required in order to "squeeze the lemon" to unify the command of colonial forces within a French Empire. The path to this citizenship development was Reynaud's policy famously known as "Algeria First."

Having gone native to some limited extent, Reynaud and de Gaulle had essentially become pied-noirs. The Blackfoots, so-called because of the black boots worn by French soldiers compared to the barefoot Algerians, were an ethno-cultural group of people of French and other European descent who were born in Algeria during the period of French colonial rule from 1830. These émigres enjoyed a high life, occupying a salubrious urban area around the cities of Oran and Algiers as well as owning farmland in the interior. Meanwhile, the indigenes lived in the crushing poverty of the kasbah. It would be Reynaud's legacy to integrate these communities such that a post-war Algeria would flourish inside a victorious Metropolitan France. De Gaulle would later succeed him as president to face the consequence of West Germany's famous "nein" - the rejection of Franco-Algeria's application to join the nascent European Economic Community as a member state.

Author's Note:

In reality, German commanders met with French officials to negotiate an end to hostilities. In 1967 de Gaulle would say "non" to Great Britain joining the EEC partly due to commitments and trading links with the Commonwealth.

Provine's Addendum:

The abrupt shift of French Republican affirmation of Algerian peoples created a very different political landscape after the war ended. With more than seven million Algerians, they were a small contingent compared to some 42 million French, but local affairs gained enough significance that the French government was required to take note. Algerian soldiers served with distinction in Europe, and necessities of improving agriculture and industry leading up to retaking the continent, as well as supporting it afterward during its own reconstruction, poured investments into Africa. Some French conservatives sought to roll back Algerian advantages, but the financial benefits of improving developing economies as new markets proved too effective. Other colonies like Indochina quickly argued for similar footing, and France was faced with treating its colonies as equals or losing them outright.

Investing in her colonies proved to be the advantageous maneuver with being denied partnership in the EEC (though some economists the denial was because of it). France experienced generational waves of Muslims moving to the continent, while French education sent engineers, administrators, and technicians back into the empire for further development. The EEC instead looked to the UK for membership, focusing on connecting with the English-speaking world with its German-speaking near cousins. Soon the EEC would expand to Greece, Austria, the Iberian nations, and into the Nordic countries and then further east across Europe as the Soviet Bloc crumbled. Today Europe is a three-fold economy with the EEC, Russian influence, and the religiously diverse France, where an education ministry case requiring the removal of headscarves was laughed out of French courts as students obviously had their rights to privacy.