Guest Post: Secretary of War Kitchener Resigns from the Cabinet

This post first appeared on Today in Alternate History.


June 3, 1916 -

On this fateful day in alternate history, Herbert Kitchener, 1st Earl Kitchener, resigned from his Cabinet position as Secretary of War.

The mistaken choice of Britain's ageing, last military hero was a panic measure taken to assuage public fear when the Liberal Government's ultimatum to Germany was ignored. Considered unsuitable for Chief of General Staff and too old for BEF Commander, Prime Minister Herbert Asquith offered him a political role that ill-suited him for exactly the same reasons Asquith had refused to appoint him Viceroy of India three years earlier. As a precondition for accepting the position, he insisted on being an apolitical figure that would not be expected to publicly defend the Government's record. Ultimately, circumstances would make this impossible because the stakes were too high for him to take isolated decisions from inside in the War Office; to maintain morale they would have to be vigorously defended in the public arena.

At issue was his accountability in a modern democracy to the voting population rather than his orders from a chain of command or, more accurately, the mission parameters. A Victorian-era dinosaur, he wrongly considered his foremost loyalty was to the King, and indeed it was to the King that he had lobbied for the position of Viceroy. When this was firmly declined by Secretary of State for India John Morley, Kitchener obtained permission to refuse the consolidation prize of the commander of Malta. By this stage, the monarch was only a ceremonial figure, and Kitchener was caught out of step with the modern democracy, having spent his career overseas serving as a senior British Army officer and colonial administrator in the British Empire, a long way from the liberal politics of Westminster. Disconnected, the other problems were he held the War Office in open contempt and, being an introspective figure, had a major flaw in communicating critical pieces of information.

A bad early omen was the death of his former boss, Lord Roberts of Kabul and Kandahar. "Bobs" died of pneumonia while visiting Indian troops at the BEF base in St Omer, France, on 14 November 1914. Meanwhile, BEF Commander Sir John French had been particularly angry that Kitchener had arrived wearing his field marshal's uniform. By the end of the year, French thought that Kitchener had "gone mad" and his hostility had become common knowledge at HQ.

Regardless of whether Asquith also intended for him to be a ceremonial figure, Kitchener used his considerable ability to set about organizing the British Army with great vigor. Key staffing decisions such as holding back officers for training were inspired, but his man-management skills were overwhelmed with the larger problems of scaling up munition supply. Within twelve months the war effort, which he himself admitted was a "grand experiment," hit a brick wall during the Shells Crisis. The leak to media was made by Sir John French, who bore a grudge against Kitchener for insisting the BEF fight in the First Battle of the Marne. This crisis resulted in the appointment of David Lloyd-George, a "peppery fellow" who had been sharply critical of his grand-standing ever since the Second Boer War. DLG became Minister of Munitions as well as Chancellor of the Exchequer, while Kitchener was stripped of his role as owner of the war-time strategy. This reshuffle was a reversion to the military reforms of 1904, which safeguarded civilian control of military matters, demonstrating that the bygone era of Marlborough and Wellington had long since passed. His reputation was further damaged by his mishandling of the Gallipoli Landings even though Winston Churchill at the Admiralty oddly took the majority of the blame.

The famous finger-pointing at the British public was now pointed straight back at him. Whereas Kitchener had failed to understand popular liberal opinion over his inhuman mistreatment of the Dervishes or Boers, public anger over British casualties was impossible to ignore especially after the disastrous Battle of the Somme, the grimmest moment in the history of the British Army. A failed vote of censure in the House of Commons over his running of the War Department was the beginning of the end. Most damagingly, Kitchener had ordered two million rifles from various US arms manufacturers, but only 480 of these rifles had arrived. The number of shells supplied was no less paltry despite the determined efforts he had made to secure alternative supplies.

Kitchener correctly foresaw a three-million-man volunteer army because conscription was considered politically unacceptable by the British cabinet. The tragedy was that he alone had foreseen a long conflict of up to five years, but even he had not anticipated the horrors of trench warfare. Adherence to the strict timings of seven-day bombardments by artillery and attacks on the half-hour removed the element of surprise, and the German machine guns cut down waves of attacking British soldiers. The final nail in the coffin was when conscription finally began when the British government passed the Military Service Act in January 1916. The act specified that single men aged eighteen to forty years old were liable to be called up for military service unless they were widowed with children or were ministers of religion. Despite unrealistic high hopes, Kitchener had lost the public's confidence in military control of the conflict and the ruthless culture of blood-letting in high command finally reached all the way to the very top.

Always more popular overseas than at home, the Canadian city of Berlin, Ontario, named in respect to a large German immigrant settler population, was renamed Kitchener following a referendum only two weeks earlier. With the public perception of "lions led by donkeys," the ever-ambitious Welsh firebrand Lloyd-George replaced him as the new Secretary of State for War and was already eyeing Downing Street. The wider problem was public trust because Kitchener's resignation triggered a wave of defeatism. This ultimately would lead to the signing of the Treaty of Potsdam with the Central Powers. Meanwhile, Kitchener would live the rest of his life on Hinson's Island, which was owned by his nephew, Major H.H. Hap Kitchener, who had married a Bermudian. Like the masses of young men he had sent to their death, he would be buried overseas in "a corner of a foreign field that is forever England."

Author's Note:

In reality, Kitchener was among 737 who drowned when the HMS Hampshire struck a German mine 1.5 miles (2.4 km) west of Orkney, Scotland, and sank. His great fame, the suddenness of his death, and its apparently convenient timing for a number of parties gave almost immediate rise to a number of conspiracy theories about his death.

Provine's Addendum:

With the end of the World War in 1917, a second American president won a Nobel Peace Prize for mediation with Woodrow Wilson following after Theodore Roosevelt in 1906 in efforts of bringing an end to the Russo-Japanese War. Wilson's presence in truth was largely ceremonial and allowed the honor of all parties to be maintained, despite Wilson's bold initiatives and outlining Fourteen Points that he hoped would establish lasting peace. Kaiser Wilhelm II was arguably the greatest winner of a no-win situation, but German confidence in royalty had declined along with the rest of Europe's, shifting Wilhelm's authority more toward ornament than practical governmental action. Germany found itself in a difficult new position rebuilding along with the rest of central Europe while the Russian Empire faced bitter revolts in the east and a Great Flu pandemic swept across the world. Through the decades, Germany became the leader of continental Europe propping up Russia during its long overdue reforms while Britain and France turned toward their attentions to maintaining their empires overseas. Japan's rapid industrialization and expansion into eastern continental Asia and Southeast Asia, challenging British, French, Dutch, and American colonial authorities already present along with Russian territory beyond Siberia. Military advisers across the world agreed, "the next great war will be in the Pacific."

Guest Post: Tokyo Raid Dominates the Skyline

This post first appeared on Today in Alternate History with input from Allen W. McDonnell, Robbie A. Taylor, Eric Oppen, and Thomas Wm. Hamilton.


April 18, 1942 -

Admiral Yamamoto feared that the surprise attack on Pearl Harbor would "awaken a sleeping giant". But due to a twist of fate, the consequences would prove to be far worse as the Soviet Union, British Empire, and Free China combined forces with the United States, assisting the Americans in seeking to wreak their revenge.

Japan had established the puppet state of Mengjiang, which bordered the Soviets, while the two countries were not at war. Stalin had major problems in the west from the German invasion and was heavily dependent on supplies coming in to the Far East via Vladivostok. Consequently, it was only a wild card factor that gained Soviet support for Lt-Col James Doolittle's Tokyo Raid. A significant ship from the Soviet Pacific fleet had been on a port call to Pearl Harbor, where it was destroyed in the Japanese attack. This was a terrible mistake since the Japanese had been soundly defeated by the Soviets in a Border War, prior to a 1939 ceasefire. Unafraid of Japanese reprisals, Stalin secretly gave his approval for the US Navy aircraft carrier USS Hornet to deliver a substantial force of B-25B Mitchell medium bombers to Vladivostok.

Without this logistical assistance, Doolittle would have had to have led a smaller force launching at sea from the Hornet itself. Instead, the Raid by a much larger force created a reciprocal amount of significant damage at the very top end of President Roosevelt's expectations. The impact on the Japanese high command was hugely disproportional. The fact that the bombers arrived unexpectedly and unopposed was another brick kicked from the foundations of their outpost perimeter defense.

Moreover, there were wider consequences that Chiang Kai-shek partly foresaw - after all, he was most familiar having fought the Japanese Empire the longest. He correctly anticipated a realignment of naval forces with most analysts suggesting the northern Pacific and even into the Bering Sea to cut off supply routes to Russia. But, to protect the Home Islands, instead the Japanese set about punishing the United States with further revenge attacks on America's west coast.

Americans were deeply worried about the "still very badly undermanned west coast" and Chief of Staff George Marshall discussed a "possible attack by the Japanese upon our plants in San Diego and then a flight by those Japs down into Mexico after they have made their attack." Marshall's visit would foreshadow the San Diego Raid, a second Pearl Harbor-style attack which would bring the Second World War to American shores. The costs to Japan were far greater than the momentary political benefits being that America was fully on a war footing and with radar tracking in San Diego spotting the raid.

Author's Note:

In reality, the Bombers were launched from the USS Hornet, and Johnson speculated from China where the crews landed. Eight US aviators were captured by Japanese forces, and three of these were later executed. All but one of the B-25s were destroyed in crashes, while the 16th landed at Vladivostok.

The consequences of the Doolittle Raid were most severely felt in China, where Japanese reprisals caused the deaths of 250,000 civilians and 70,000 soldiers. Nevertheless, Chiang Kai-shek awarded the raiders China's highest military decorations, and predicted (in his diary) that Japan would alter its goals and strategy as a result of the disgrace. Indeed, the raid was a shock to the staff at Japanese Imperial General Headquarters. As a direct consequence, Japan attacked territories in China to prevent similar shuttle bombing runs.

Provine's Addendum:

Japanese forces did indeed realign their attacks, which had been primarily southward in the first five months of the war in the Pacific as they seized the Philippines in December, 1941, and the Dutch East Indies in January, 1942. Following the declaration of war on the USSR in late April, Japan shifted its attention northward, determining to follow a defensive strategy in the south. An altercation in the Coral Sea in May, 1942, was an Allied victory, although only minor Japanese ships were sunk since larger carriers had been shifted northward. The Japanese forces dug in at Port Moresby and New Britain proved to the Allies that every inch of ground would need to be won with blood. Japan, meanwhile, laid siege to Vladivostok and achieved an overwhelming victory at Midway Atoll thanks to additional ships. Yamamoto, who had been too busy in the north to review defenses in the south, reevaluated their submarine doctrine to align with German Wolfpack U-boat tactics that devastated American supply lines to Russia.

The Pacific Theater continued as a grueling grind of bloody invasions and never-ending cat-and-mouse naval sorties. Even after the lackluster results of the Battle of San Diego, Japanese bombers struck Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, and Vancouver attempting to continue psychological warfare. Experimental Japanese high-level balloons attempted to firebomb forests and poison herds with anthrax, but the damage was minimal in scope and the US government kept the public from panic with coverups. World attention was mostly focused on Africa where the Allies made some gains and Eastern Europe, where Stalin's forces fought on desperately with fewer and fewer supplies. Long-term industrial investments proved necessary, spurring the UK and US to send engineers to Siberia in hopes of opening new mining and manufacturing.

By 1945, the Allies had taken Europe, but Japan still held much of the Far East. The US's new weapon, an atomic bomb, proved to be an opportunity to end the war early. Long-range flights reminiscent of the Doolittle Raid dropped bombs in a first wave in August at Hiroshima, Nagasaki, and Tokyo on the 15th. Japan refused to yield despite the devastation, leading to a "return to the countryside" strategy to protect its populace by spreading out and decentralizing industry while continuing production. The bombings continued into 1946 with smaller yield bombs effective at destroying clustered surface fleets with smaller craft sunk and sailors bathed in radiation on ships large enough to withstand a blast. Finally, almost a year after the fall of Berlin, the Japanese Empire capitulated.

The effects of nuclear war became apparent, especially as the American Baby Boom also saw disfigurations due to fallout carried on prevailing winds (including the recently discovered jet streams). One of the early decisions of the fledgling United Nations was to ban atomic weapons completely, a move lauded by scientists and the public alike. While leaders like Churchill felt Communism would be the next looming enemy, the Allied effort in boosting USSR production also brought along a wave of demand for consumerist items like Coca-Cola. Stalin himself capitalized on giving the people what they wanted, securing his legacy as a champion of hope in the darkest times and a gift-giver in times of plenty. Today Ded Moroz (often called "Russian Santa Claus") is depicted with a mustache and not a beard in a portrayal of Stalin.

Guest Post: PM Reynaud issues the Algiers Declaration

This post first appeared on Today in Alternate History, asking "what if Third Republic had fought on after the fall of France?" co-written with Allen W. McDonnell.

June 21, 1940 -

The incomparable Prime Minister of the Third Republic Paul Reynaud declared his intention to fight on from the new capital of Algiers where his embattled government would continue to direct the war effort and govern Free France.

With a growing sense of defeatism in the air, Reynaud had followed the hawkish advice of his recently appointed Undersecretary for War, Charles de Gaulle, who had recommended a withdrawal to North Africa. The only alternative was capitulation; other military figures were urging surrender, while some politicians the formation of a government-in-exile, essentially following the same route as other defeated nations whose ministers were now based in London, England. Given the risk of reprisals on the mainland, Reynaud's decision was certainly bold, taken for the glory of France and perhaps motivated by a fear of kicking their heels in London for the duration of the war.

The implications of this decision would last for decades. Whereas Winston Churchill had offered Reynaud a Franco-British Union to fight on, Reynaud decided to take a very different, more patriotic, route that would eventually see Algeria fully integrated into a modern bi-continental, multi-faith state. A blended economic super-power, rich in oil reserves and Western technology, by the millennium she would become the eighth largest populated country in the world.

Rewarded for his courageous stand, Reynaud would be strongly supported by the British Empire and the still-neutral United States. The Third Republic had millions of dollars of military goods on order from the USA preparing to ship across the Atlantic now re-directed for delivery to Casablanca. She would use her New World colonies as collateral to get the needed bank loans until Congress voted to extend lend-lease arrangements to the government in Algeria. Meanwhile, de Gaulle, as the newly appointed Minister of War, gathered up colonial French forces from around Africa and the Americas along with escaping naval and army units from France proper. Forging these diverse forces into an effective modern military took months, but, by April 1941, they were advancing into Italian territory using American Garand rifles and British food and medical supplies.

Meanwhile, Reynaud focused his efforts on political development, taking the courageous step of granting full voting rights to Algerian Muslims. Ironically, this was a historic decision that the electorate of occupied France would have surely vetoed. Yet another problem was the status of other members of the French Union. Algeria and her three departments were a formal part of Metropolitan France, but Tunisia and Morocco were protectorates, and Indochina and Polynesia, etc., had their own local governance structures. Ultimately, some progressive steps were required in order to "squeeze the lemon" to unify the command of colonial forces within a French Empire. The path to this citizenship development was Reynaud's policy famously known as "Algeria First."

Having gone native to some limited extent, Reynaud and de Gaulle had essentially become pied-noirs. The Blackfoots, so-called because of the black boots worn by French soldiers compared to the barefoot Algerians, were an ethno-cultural group of people of French and other European descent who were born in Algeria during the period of French colonial rule from 1830. These émigres enjoyed a high life, occupying a salubrious urban area around the cities of Oran and Algiers as well as owning farmland in the interior. Meanwhile, the indigenes lived in the crushing poverty of the kasbah. It would be Reynaud's legacy to integrate these communities such that a post-war Algeria would flourish inside a victorious Metropolitan France. De Gaulle would later succeed him as president to face the consequence of West Germany's famous "nein" - the rejection of Franco-Algeria's application to join the nascent European Economic Community as a member state.

Author's Note:

In reality, German commanders met with French officials to negotiate an end to hostilities. In 1967 de Gaulle would say "non" to Great Britain joining the EEC partly due to commitments and trading links with the Commonwealth.

Provine's Addendum:

The abrupt shift of French Republican affirmation of Algerian peoples created a very different political landscape after the war ended. With more than seven million Algerians, they were a small contingent compared to some 42 million French, but local affairs gained enough significance that the French government was required to take note. Algerian soldiers served with distinction in Europe, and necessities of improving agriculture and industry leading up to retaking the continent, as well as supporting it afterward during its own reconstruction, poured investments into Africa. Some French conservatives sought to roll back Algerian advantages, but the financial benefits of improving developing economies as new markets proved too effective. Other colonies like Indochina quickly argued for similar footing, and France was faced with treating its colonies as equals or losing them outright.

Investing in her colonies proved to be the advantageous maneuver with being denied partnership in the EEC (though some economists the denial was because of it). France experienced generational waves of Muslims moving to the continent, while French education sent engineers, administrators, and technicians back into the empire for further development. The EEC instead looked to the UK for membership, focusing on connecting with the English-speaking world with its German-speaking near cousins. Soon the EEC would expand to Greece, Austria, the Iberian nations, and into the Nordic countries and then further east across Europe as the Soviet Bloc crumbled. Today Europe is a three-fold economy with the EEC, Russian influence, and the religiously diverse France, where an education ministry case requiring the removal of headscarves was laughed out of French courts as students obviously had their rights to privacy.

Guest Post: Democratic Eisenhower

This post first appeared on Today in Alternate History.

Oct 14, 1890 -

Future five-star general and later Democratic candidate for president of the United States, David Dwight Eisenhower was born in his hometown of Denison, Texas.

"Tex" was of German origin and raised in a deeply religious household that set aside specific times at breakfast and at dinner for daily family Bible reading. His family struggled to survive crushing poverty, but his father, David, eventually managed to make a profitable success of the family store at great personal cost to his time available for his son.

Seeking his own fame and fortune, the younger David Eisenhower attended officer training at West Point Military College, a choice that saddened his mother, who felt that warfare was "rather wicked," but she did not overrule his decision. Her faith was well placed; speaking of himself in 1948, Eisenhower said he was "one of the most deeply religious men I know." His illustrious career in the military would bring him into two wars with Germany, the ancestral country that the Eisenhauer family  had left two centuries earlier. In his leadership, he managed to help plan a successful D-Day and occupation of Germany while holding together a shaky coalition that included Patton, Charles de Gaulle, and British commanders such as Montgomery.

In addition to working with these famous leaders of the greatest generation, the arc of his destiny would cross another magnificent American of European heritage. FDR's ancestor Claes Maartenszen van Rosenvelt had arrived in New Amsterdam (present-day New York City) sometime between 1638 and 1649. He saw Tex as a natural presidential successor for the 1948 election, but time was against him with his passing in 1945. Instead, Harry S Truman (who initially had a "caretaker" feel to his Administration) occupied the White House for most of two terms, while Tex served as military governor of the American-occupied zone of Germany (1945), Army Chief of Staff (1945-1948), president of Columbia University (1948-1953), and as the first supreme commander of NATO (1951-1952).

Not bound by the Twenty-second Amendment, Truman could have run again in 1952 but was deeply unpopular and tired of office. As a ready replacement, Tex Eisenhower was a shoe-in for the Democratic nomination even without Truman's encouragement. A moderate conservative, he chose Illinois Governor Adlai Stevenson for his running mate. As a military hero, he was far better qualified than Stevenson to handle the Cold War that arguably Truman had created. However, the problem was that the Democrats had been in the White House for five consecutive terms and the country was ready for a sharp change of direction.

The keynote speech at the Republican National Convention was delivered by another five-star general, Douglas MacArthur, who had become a hero to Republicans after Truman relieved him of command the previous year. He condemned the Truman administration for America's perceived loss of status on the international stage, including criticism of the Yalta Conference and the administration's handling of the war in Korea. MacArthur also criticized Truman on the domestic front, blaming his administration for wages that failed to keep pace with post-World War II inflation. MacArthur had high hopes of receiving the nomination himself, but his ill-tempered speech was not well received and he dropped out of sight. This was the first misstep that sent the Republic downwards on a negative trajectory despite their win in 1952 with Taft.

Former Senate Majority Leader Robert A. Taft narrowly won the general election, but he was in even worse health than FDR had been in 1944 and died after only six months in office. This calamity would bring Vice-president Earl Warren, former governor of California, into the Oval Office. Seen as too close to the unsuccessful 1944/48 candidate Thomas Dewey, Warren was despised by the GOP base. Despite his infamous internment of Japanese-Americans during WW2, President Warren made great strides with Civil Rights legislation, stoking violent opposition in the South and splitting the conservative Republicans. Warren would be assassinated in Dallas during the course of a hard-fought presidential election campaign with Senator John F. Kennedy of Massachusetts.

By now deep into retirement, Eisenhower blamed a "psychopathic" action for taking the president's life. He would be asked to serve his country one more time, heading a Commission on the Assassination of President Warren, known unofficially as the "Eisenhower Commission."

Author's Note:

In reality, the Eisenhowers lived in Texas from 1889 until 1892 and later returned to Kansas, with $24 (equivalent to $782 in today's money) to their name. In this scenario, we imagine that his family store is a success, but, in so doing, his father has less time for him triggering subtle changes:  is not nicknamed Ike, and does not reverse his two Christian names to "Dwight David."

Ike and FDR maintained formal, but amiable, relations during the war although Mamie and Eleanor disliked each other. He had mixed views about FDR's domestic legacy but considered him to be as good a Commander in Chief during WWII as Americans could have asked for. Sitting President Harry S. Truman tried to get him to agree to run as a Democrat and succeed him, and so did a number of other Democrats. Eisenhower had never officially announced what party he supported, because he felt that was impolitic as an active-duty soldier.

Provine's Addendum:

Warren's assassination brought great turmoil to the Republican Party, especially since it was after the 1956 convention and many questions rose on how ballots would look in different states. VP and former Ohio governor John Bricker stepped up with many saying he could immediately take on the role of president even if "Warren" were listed on the ballot. The issue proved moot as "JFK" won out in the rallying cry for the election even above the "grief" vote for Warren.

Kennedy's two terms would be dedicated to finding a new balance in the Cold War along with improving civil rights at home. Eisenhower's report decried racism as the root cause of Warren's death as Warren had built policy following the Supreme Court decision in Brown v. Board of Education in 1954. Kennedy federalized National Guard to defend African American students going to school in Little Rock, Arkansas, in accordance with integration despite the hundreds of protestors who attempted to block them. As many of the protestors proved not to be even from Little Rock, Kennedy went a step further in preserving the peace by pushing protestors farther and farther away unless they could prove school involvement. To some, this proved a violation of the First Amendment rights; the later Supreme Court decision determined that protests against a race, and even hate speech, were not protected under the First Amendment as an inherent provocation. The decision was a major win especially for Martin Luther King, Jr., who appealed to it for federal protection during the marches in Selma, AL, and the Justice Department crackdown that ended the long FBI directorship of J. Edgar Hoover. King, of course, would later go on to be the first African American president of the United States.

Guest Post: British Permanently Seize Manila

This post first appeared on Today in Alternate History based on an idea by Mike Mac.

September 24, 1762 -

A British fleet sailed into Manila Bay, capturing the greatest Spanish fortress in the western Pacific. The expedition from Madras, led by Brigadier-General William Draper and Rear-Admiral Samuel Cornish, comprised eight ships of the line, three frigates, and four store ships with a force of seven thousand regulars, sailors and marines.

The Great Powers' competing interests over trade and colonies was the underlying cause of the Seven Years War. Yet the fall of Manilla (and the nearby principal port of Cavite) created a critical point of dispute for the negotiators of the Treaty of Paris. The British needed a base in the Pacific, while the Manila galleons contributed to Spain's continued, though greatly diminishing, wealth. Without a reciprocal trade, Spain simply could not afford to give up the Philippines to the British.

Unable to reach a mutually agreeable settlement in Paris, the tension would escalate until 1766, when a spark culminated in the Anglo-Spanish War of the Indies. During the interim, imperialists had considered creating a British East Indies, putting the islands under the control of the British East India Company, maybe even creating a home-from-home grandly named "New Albion." Certainly the Christian majority population created imaginative opportunities that would never be attempted by colonial authorities back in Madras. But instead the British took the historically significant decision to divide the Philippines into the three separate governing provinces of Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao.

Author's Note:

In reality, once Manila fell to British troops, the churches and government offices were ransacked, valuables were taken and historical documents such as Augustinian records, government documents, and even the copper plates for the grand 18th-century Murillo Velarde map of the Philippines were ransacked along with the naval stores at the Cavite Naval Yard, the paintings in the Governor General's Palace, the contents of Intramuros churches and the possessions of most wealthy houses. Rape, homicide, and vandalism also rampaged through the city in what is known as the first "Rape of Manila." The British demanded a ransom of four million dollars from the Spanish government to stop the plundering of the city, to which Archbishop Rojo agreed in order to avoid further destruction. However, the resistance from the provisional Spanish colonial government established by members of the Royal Audience of Manila and their Filipino allies prevented British forces from taking control of territory beyond the neighbouring towns of Manila and Cavite. The British occupation was ended as part of the peace settlement of the Seven Years War.

Provine's Addendum:

Anglicization proved difficult in the former Philippines since the Spanish culture had been introduced to the islands centuries before. Many in Parliament saw the islands as an albatross around the empire's neck. Still, the East India Company had huge promises of wealth, and the venture lumbered on. In the nineteenth century, imperialization became much more effective with huge leaps in industrial goods like repeating rifles and transport like the steam engine. British investment poured into the islands, focusing on the most anglicized areas in Luzon in the north first, leaving the more southerly Visayas and Mindanao island groups less developed.

In the twentieth century, Britain found a new rival in the expanding Japanese Empire. On December 8, 1941, Japanese forces seized the islands by overcoming the small, but hard-fighting, resistance force left behind as most troops had been pulled toward Europe. The United States balked at Japanese aggression but remained as neutral as it could be in Lend-Lease to the Allies. Japan then moved on to attack Australia and India, seemingly threatening to swallow up all of the British and Dutch colonies in the region. However, Japan's navy soon found itself greatly overextended. Upon the entry of the United States into the fray in 1943 following the sinking of US shipping, their forces were readily rolled back while Japanese cities faced new war technology in the atomic bomb.

After the war ended, the former Philippines left the British Empire like many other colonies. War soon broke out again, ultimately seeing the island group split into pro-capitalist Luzon in the north and communist "South Philippines" with Visayas and Mindanao seeing further political turbulence from the Sunni Islam residents later seeking independence in the southwest.

Guest Post: Reformation Fails in Germany

This article first appeared on Today in Alternate History based upon an original idea from Eric Oppen in a variant ending to Jeff Provine's scenario of the same name with input from a Quora article.

1517 -

With the Renaissance underway, the emergence of a series of technological developments increasingly challenged the seven long centuries of Papal authority across North Europe. The principle of political legitimacy had originally been established by Pope Leo III crowning the Frankish king Charlemagne as Holy Roman Emperor in the year 800. Now the emergence of man-portable firearms broadened the warrior class, loosening the Vatican's indirect control of national rulers. Meanwhile, the printing press had brought expanded literacy, a rising self-awareness threat to the corrupt and abusive "indulgences," the extortion of payments in exchange for remission from sin.

Seven centuries after Charlemagne, and coincidentally seven Pope Leos later, the German priest Martin Luther translated the Vulgate Bible into his native language, discovering glaring inconsistencies in Catholic teachings. He was provoked to action by Pope Leo X's appointment of Albrecht von Brandenburg, Archbishop of Mainz, as general indulgence commissioner. 

The form of protest was nailing Ninety-Five Theses to Wittenburg Town Hall, placing him at the epicentre of these struggles. Meanwhile, northerly Germans were poised to seize upon this theological dispute as an opportunity to gain political independence from the Holy Roman Empire.

From his lengthy experience of dealing with reformers and heretics, Pope Leo X seriously considered deploying a series of papal theologians and envoys against Luther. Perhaps if there was just a theological dimension this approach might have worked, but ultimately he decided that the rebellious atmosphere was an argument against responding slowly "with great care as is proper." Instead, he chose to seize the initiative by agreeing to meet with Luther and find a resolution. Some welcome reforms of indulgences followed. However, in a broader sense, this change was a generation too late, even if it certainly took the steam out of the present moment and events appeared to settle down.

As was the way with the Renaissance Period, the figures in this intense drama soon passed from the stage. Martin Luther was not destined to be the Reformator; instead his father convinced him to become a monk. Meanwhile, Pope Leo X, aged only 45, died four years later, going to his grave believing that he had dealt with the troubles in northern Germany. Of course, the deeper truth was that Roman Catholicism had been constantly suffering schisms throughout history, most notably the separation of the Orthodox Church. Trouble had been brewing ever since the time of the heretic John Wycliffe, who supported King Edward III's refusal to pay taxes to the pope, boldly declaring, "England belongs to no pope. The pope is but a man, subject to sin, but Christ is the Lord of Lords and this kingdom is to be held directly and solely of Christ alone."

Heretical problems continued to spring up. Clement VII, deemed "the most unfortunate of the popes," would have to confront a fresh challenge from England, and again it was driven by monetary interests. The imperative to seize the monasteries was driven by a lack of revenue to fund the war with France. Henry VIII, formerly honored by Clement VII as a defender of the faith, and Thomas Cramner led attempts to force a separation through a divorce with the queen. Cramner had a unique perspective, having served as ambassador at the court of the Holy Roman Emperor, Charles V, and establishing first contact with a Continental reformer, Simon Grynaeus. He was a humanist based in Basel, Switzerland, and a follower of the Swiss reformers Huldrych Zwingli and Johannes Oecolampadius.

Because Catherine of Aragon was the aunt of the pope's sponsor Charles V, Henry's request for a divorce was impossible to grant. The English Reformation was inevitable, but surprisingly the high anglicism emerged that was barely distinguishable from Catholicism. This was spread through the teachings of the Church of England, later on via the Protestant Bible of Mary Queen of Scots (who succeeded Henry's daughter Elizabeth I). Instead, the heretical challenge would come from Switzerland and then France. With France split by division, the Huguenots fled overseas, creating colonies that would seed Protestantism across the world.

Author's Note:

In reality, Luther was disenfranchised, writing "I lost touch with Christ the Savior and Comforter, and made of him the jailor and hangman of my poor soul," and soon set out to reform the practice of selling indulgences when only God may forgive. The resulting Reformation would split Europe along battle lines of Catholics and Protestants for centuries.

Provine's Addendum

While troubles for Catholic authority continued to boil up in Switzerland, England, and France, the Scandinavia and the Baltic region embraced the reformed stance of the pope. Even famed Swedish monarchist Gustav II Adolphus, whose beliefs seemed to lean toward absolute rule, recited Matthew's verse, "Render unto Caesar what is Caesar's and unto God what are God's." This political coziness turned out to be a great benefit in the eighteenth century as Sweden moved into the power vacuum of the declining Poland-Lithuania. Karl XII appealed to Rome for aid in his invasion of Russia, which led to thousands of volunteers across southern Europe marching to join him against the Orthodox believers. Sweden's occupation of Russia would prove costly and ultimately a failure, leaving the next centuries to the Austria as the great bastion in the east.

Guest Post: Commander Horthy Calls for Aid

This post first appeared on Today in Alternate History with input from Jeff Provine, Eric Oppen and John Braungart.

August 9, 1917 -

The future of the sprawling Habsburg lands had become a power struggle contested by the newly crowned Emperor Franz Ferdinand versus Miklós Horthy, a former naval aide-de-camp to his late uncle, Emperor Franz Joseph. A striking militaristic figure, Horthy had become the rallying point for the Magyar faction as the Hungarian commander of the pre-dreadnought battleship ironically named SMS Habsburg.

As fate would have it, the aging Franz Joseph had died months short of the expiry of the Ausgleich Constitution of 1867 in which he had created the dual monarchy, two kingdoms united by one crown. Despite his reforms, the empire had become the "Sick Old Man of Europe" during the long years of his reign. Franz Ferdinand as successor aimed to reverse this slide into ruin by scrapping this outdated imperial constitution. The imperative to federalize the Habsburg lands was driven by a combination of his liberalism, and his own very personal reaction to the assassination attempt in Sarajevo that had brought the Great Powers to the brink of war.

Needless to say, the justification for this controversial decision was strenuously objected to by the Hungarians and, especially, the Magyars. Unfortunately for their nationalistic aspirations, Franz Ferdinand had pre-empted their rebellion by cultivating a close relationship with Kaiser Wilhelm of Germany to ensure foreign support needed to keep a Hungarian revolt from developing into a full civil war. Horthy aimed to restore the full statehood that had been lost by the Hungarian Revolution of 1848, but he had made bitter internal enemies for his controversial plan to Magyarize the majority of non-Magyar residents living in Hungary.

Vienna and Berlin shared a common vision for a United States of Greater Austria, which they both saw as the optimal solution to the structural weakness in governing the Habsburg lands. At some level, this framework mirrored the logic of the German Empire's unification of princely states. Despite the Magyar resistance, it seemed to work, at least in the short term. The German-supported Habsburgs were firmly in ascendance after eight months, and, by August of 1917, Commander Horthy was forced to call for aid from the Triple Entente powers of Russia, France, and Great Britain.

Very much an offensive alliance, the Triple Entente certainly took issue with German expansionism. But, Hungary wasn't Belgium and it would be desperately hard for them to support the Magyars even if they really wanted to. Due to the geography of Central Europe, this desired response would require a direct intervention by the Tsar's army to fight the Austro-German forces in Hungary. The prospects were looking rather bleak. In recent years, the Russians had adopted a cynical foreign policy, shamelessly working with both the Austrians and the Ottomans to achieve access to the Mediterranean, in direct contravention of what the Southern Slavs perceived as their vital interests.

A real problem was that the Tsar could not been seen to support separatist republicans for fear it would undermine Romanov rule, whereas Paris and London viewed Central Europe as a powder keg waiting to explode. Horthy would be disappointed, and Franz Ferdinand's declaration of a confederation of states was militarily unchallenged. However, the Entente statesmen were near-certain that the experiment would fail and they were only preparing to play the long game.

Author's Note:

In reality, Franz Ferdinand was assassinated, and Miklós Horthy served as regent of the Kingdom of Hungary during the interwar period and most of World War II.

Provine's Addendum:

The twentieth century became an era of empires that transcended even the centuries before. Lessons learned from Horthy's Magyarization efforts showed that reforms needed to balance patriotism with support for minorities rather than populist nationalism. Franz Ferdinand, who had previously argued to extend status quo with trialism (a third crown so make himself emperor of the Croats as well) instead sought economic incentives for the disenfranchised and balance among the many ethnicities. This required a skillful hand in striating politics from local elections to "nations" to a unified parliament merging further interests with the two parliaments that had existed for the Austrians and Hungarians. Some royalists decried Franz Ferdinand seemingly weakening the emperor's power since the crown would go to Charles I as Franz Ferdinand's own sons were discounted due to his socially imbalanced marriage. Others saw these actions, as well as the marriage itself, a much-needed equalizing in a rapidly changing world. They felt their opinions were proved as both of Franz Ferdinand's sons, Maximilian and Ernst, would serve as ranking members of parliament.

The other major powers of Europe kept their attention on overseas expansion. While most of the political borders had been set by the time of Franz Ferdiand's reign, there were still plenty of opportunities for economic influence. Spheres grew up and eventually overlapped, leading to conflict such as the Japano-Dutch War over Chinese and Indonesian land-holdings. The Western Pacific Accords redefined colonial boundaries between them as well as American, British, French, Russian, and German interests. Seeing that international discussion and diplomacy would be necessary, the Congress of Vienna became a permanent institution. Just as the meeting of European nations after the fall of Napoleon mapped political developments, so would its namesake, continually hosted by the emperor for generations.

Guest Post: Breckinridge Compromise

This post first appeared on Today in Alternate History with input from Allen W. McDonnell.

November 6, 1860 - James Buchanan dies on election day

The precarious health of sixty-nine-year-old President James Buchanan was near final collapse. He had spent four years being unwell, suffering a variety of ailments ever since contracting the so-called "National Hotel Disease" prior to his inauguration. This dreaded condition had already taken the lives of his nephew and private secretary, Eskridge Lane.

The absence of firm presidential authority could not have come at a worse time. As he drew his last breath, seven Deep South cotton states prepared to secede if the "black Republican" Abraham Lincoln was elected president over the multitude of other candidates. Not yet forty years old, the young and vigorous Vice President John Breckinridge was a huge supporter of states rights and voluntary association. But he had no chance of winning the election himself because the national convention had been unable to agree on a unified platform. Worse still, the nomination of Illinois Senator Stephen A. Douglas had alienated many radical pro-slavery Southern Democrats due to his support for the concept of popular sovereignty.

At this point, the Democrats had nothing to lose and everything to gain. If it was too late the save the Union, then at least the sudden demise of Buchanan presented an unexpected opportunity to avert the outbreak of a bloody civil war. There was barely a Union army to speak of, and more than half of those forces would be loyal to the south. Certainly, there had been many compromises proposed before and brilliant minds put forward imaginative mental frameworks, but the national issue now was about expedience, avoiding an unnecessary tragedy.

For the first time, minds, and political will, became properly focused on solutioning. To de-escalate the situation, Breckinridge made a bold 'farewell' offer to the fire-eaters. The Union would vacate federal property in the seceded states, and these in turn would reimburse the Union for the full value of those facilities and also the costs of transporting any employees who chose to return to federal territory.

The founding fathers of the Confederacy listed the continuation of slavery as their primary justification in the various articles of secession. They dreamt of annexing Mexico and the Caribbean to create slave states out of those regions, but, instead, the seceding states were off to a hesitant start with a rump nation that was weak economically. Nevertheless, they were determined to meet Breckinridge's offer.

Unwilling to follow the "rash secession" of the lower South, the "Old Dominion" of Virginia stood aside; indeed, it was in the state capital of Richmond that Southern Democrats had nominated Breckinridge. While his offer was under consideration by the Deep South, further states chose not to secede, and the Breckinridge Compromise was finally accepted in good spirit on Christmas Eve 1860. In an act of selfless courage, Breckinridge was onboard the Star of the West when it evacuated the federals on Fort Sumter in Charleston Harbor.

Meanwhile, President-elect Abraham Lincoln, who had his own pressures, was rapidly making political calculations. Mainly, this was about the long-term future of a viable slave-holders republic, the capital of which was Montgomery, Alabama, with a population of less than 10,000 people. De facto leader Jefferson Davis declared, "All we ask is to be left alone." Lincoln anticipated that a seven-state Confederacy could not survive in its present form despite being a geographic entity stretching from the Mississippi to the Atlantic Ocean, larger than many European countries.

There were many complex economic and political factors to consider, including the questionable governance ability of the Fire-eaters, the negative reaction of the great powers, mechanization, and slavery being on its way out as a viable labor system. Ultimately, the real question became when the seven states would return to the Union, and beyond that, whether the hero-of-the-hour Breckinridge might win the 1864 election. The paradoxical result of this outcome would be for Lincoln to be remembered as a do-nothing president like Buchanan.

Author's Note:

In reality, Buchanan recovered in 1857 and Lincoln was inaugurated as planned.

Provine's Addendum:

The Confederacy soon fell into political turmoil of its own making as Texas found it had very different  political interests from the other states, particularly as the issue of funding a navy versus frontier forts in the West. Texas soon seceded, again reestablished as the Republic of Texas, which would normalize relations with the United States over questions of the Red River boundary. This irony was not lost on anyone of the day, nor commentators later.

Fearful of losing more ground, most leaders of the Confederacy worked to drive public spirit with a few key causes. Runaway slaves was an issue of particular interest, although the Union to the north was steadfast in granting freedom following the post-Secession congress to be largely anti-slavery. Remaining slave states began a timetable for complete manumission with federal dollars paying for the lost "property" according to arguments based on the Fifth Amendment. The Confederacy knew it had no hopes of winning a war to stop the flow of the Underground Railroad, especially as Abraham Lincoln did plenty of saber-rattling to ensure that New Orleans remained a free port for Union river traffic.

Rather than looking northward, the Confederacy turned south in hopes of conquering Cuba. They became embroiled in the Ten Years' War, which became a muddled mess as the clearer lines between independence and loyalty to the Spanish Crown blurred over Confederate interests. As the war dragged on, male slaves were offered freedom for volunteering, their masters paid by the government; however, stories of the suffering and disease in Cuba meant few actually volunteered themselves. Eventually the Confederacy pulled out of the costly war, bankrupt as a nation and scrambling for international support. South Carolina would be the next state to secede, again, this time establishing itself as an independent nation. The other states had louder and louder factions calling for a return to the Union, leading to eventual revolution that would rock the former slave-holding states.

Guest Post: British Argentina

This Today in Alternate History post by Yosef Robinson first appeared on Quora.

What would Argentina have looked like today if Britain had captured it in 1806-1807?

The British start their takeover of the River Plate region in early July 1807 by temporarily directly controlling all of that area thanks to a daring maneuver by Lieutenant-General John Whitelocke storming the city before Santiago de Liniers could prepare defenses. However, a few months later, for various reasons including pro-independence and anti-British/Spanish rebellions, they give up direct control of Buenos Aires - city and province - in favor of independence as a British client state. The lighter British hand, along with a small economic boom from import/exports during the occupation, prompts local tolerance for British authority.

At the same time, the British retain direct control of Montevideo and the Uruguayan coast; soon thereafter, upon the defeat of Jose Gervasio Artigas and fellow Uruguayan rebels in favor of Spanish-American independence*, also the Uruguayan interior, plus what are now Entre Rios, Corrientes, and Santa Fe provinces. The British also control those points along the Patagonian coast that had hitherto belonged to the Viceroyalty, as well as eventually the ever-strategic Strait of Magellan. Various Spanish-speaking republics also form in the interior, such as Cordoba and Tucuman.

*Artigas and the other instigators flee to Paraguay, sort of like how the instigators of the Patriotes rebellion in Quebec in 1837 flee to the USA.

Gradually, the British take over various other places in that region, ultimately including places like Buenos Aires around the late 1830s-1840s (due to the threat posed by Juan Manuel de Rosas to the British presence in the region). The British take over many spots in the interior later yet, and most of these parts become part of a federal Dominion of Argentina starting in 1875, with the exception of Paraguay (always independent) and real-life Misiones province (becoming or being a part of Paraguay). The Argentine Chaco - up to and including Formosa province - gets to be a part of Argentina in this scenario.

Furthermore, the War of the Pacific in the nitrate mining area (northern Chile, in reality) ca. 1879–80 plays out differently in that the British are more heavily influential on the “informal empire” and economic level all throughout much of South America. Thus, they indirectly influence Chile, Bolivia, and Peru on account of all their economic interests in each of those countries, including the nitrate mines, even while themselves being neutral. There’s less military combat going on overall. While Chile gains the Antofagasta area for the nitrates, Bolivia takes over much of the zone north of the Antofagasta/Tocopilla area (with Bolivia thus retaining a coast to this day), as in the Iquique area for example. Peru gets to keep the Arica area even further north. After taking over previously-independent Salta/Jujuy ca. 1900 after considerable resistance, the British take over Bolivia right to the north from 1900-1905 as a protectorate for its tin-mining boom, until a popular revolt sometime in the 1940s or early 1950s overthrows the British and restores full independence. The British would have loved to make a northern access route to the Pacific through Bolivia even as far back as the 1860s-1870s, but the very difficult geography of the Altiplano just would have made it impossible using the transportation technology of that time.

A nationalist movement arises in the late 1940s and early 1950s among the Spanish-speakers of Argentina, including the appearance of a new flag, seen below. This leads to a 1967 referendum on Argentina becoming a republic, which is defeated. There is a linguistic and constitutional crisis as a result of that. The interior, Spanish-speaking provinces gain greater autonomy, but there is no separatist movement nor anti-English language legislation like there is in Quebec. A second referendum in the mid-1980s, with the "Yes" side winning, leads to the formation of a parliamentary republic, with a president replacing the Queen of England (represented by a governor-general) as the head of state.

An Argentina in all this scenario - which includes Uruguay plus the Falklands (without dispute, albeit as an internal territory much like, say, the Northwest Territories in Canada) and the Strait of Magellan area (in Chile in real life) - becomes bilingual and bicultural (in this case, Spanish and English) just as much as Canada or white South Africa, joining the family of anglophone countries. Indeed, it is more like white South Africa than like Canada, with a 60/40 split between the Spanish and English sectors. Roman Catholics, including many of the Anglos, outnumber Protestants three to one - with Catholics comprising just over half of the entire population. Another 20-25% are religiously unaffiliated.

The capital is Rosario (rather than Buenos Aires as in real life); in actual history, there were multiple unsuccessful attempts in the 1860s and 1870s at making Rosario the federal capital.

Because of a very well-endowed geography, as well as because of the more favourable political and economic legacy left behind by the British just like in the other Anglo countries such as Canada and Australia, plus being an Ally in both World Wars, Argentina is able to leverage its natural turn-of-the-20th-century prosperity much more effectively than in reality. It is able to more effectively industrialize, and somewhat earlier, than in real life.

As such, Argentina becomes not only a developed and stable country with a modern per capita GDP of at least $50,000, unlike in real life, but also a member of the G8 of the most powerful economies alongside Canada, the US, the UK, France, Germany, Italy, and Japan. This alternate Argentina is a regional South American power, alongside Brazil.

Therefore, no Peronism, Dirty War, Falklands War, hyperinflation, IMF/World Bank austerity measures, etc., and further back, no interminable series of bloody 19th century independence and civil wars!

The current population of this alternate Argentina is almost 75,000,000 (as against just over 50,000,000 in real life in the territory covered by British Argentina). Not including the Argentine claim in Antarctica, its area is 3,020,849 km.² (1,166,356 miles²), making it the eighth largest country in the world by area. There are 21 provinces and two territories (the Falkland and South Atlantic Islands, and the Federal Capital Territory) in the country.

Neighbouring countries like Chile, Brazil, Bolivia, and Paraguay are all somewhat better off than in real life, at least economically.

Chile manages to avoid the deleterious Allende and Pinochet regimes, due to Allende narrowly losing rather than winning the 1970 election because of somewhat fewer poor people voting for him. It becomes a developed country in the 1990s, though even today it isn’t quite as developed as Argentina, more on the level of something like Greece or Portugal, or maybe Spain or Italy at best.

Brazil abolishes slavery earlier, due to a more significant British military presence in South America - the British having been instrumental even in reality to abolish the slave trade. On the other hand, it retains its monarchy longer, given the example of the British dominion of Argentina next door, such that when it does abolish its monarchy, it becomes a semi-presidential republic (along the lines of France) to this day.

Once Bolivia overthrows the British protectors sometime during or just after World War II, there is reasonably more political stability than in reality, and the elites are much more coherent and less fractured. In the 1970s and 1980s, there is a terrorist group along the lines of the Shining Path in Peru or the FARC in Colombia.

Paraguay is more populated than in real life because there is no massive population loss (especially of men) due to the War of the Triple Alliance (or Paraguayan War) in the 1860s, the British being a much more formidable foe of Paraguay than the real-life independent Argentines and Uruguayans. If anything, there might just be skirmishes between Paraguay and Brazil. Moreover, there is no full-fledged Chaco War in the 1930s, perhaps just skirmishes between Paraguay and Bolivia, and most certainly there is no proxy war between the US-owned Standard Oil and the British/Dutch-owned Royal Shell Company as in real life due to Bolivia being a British protectorate at that time (hence, the predominance of the Royal Shell Company in this scenario). Therefore, Paraguay’s northwestern border with Bolivia remains somewhat further south than what it is in reality.

Author's Note:

In reality, the British failed to take advantage of their victory over the militias on the field just west of the city on July 2, with Liniers being unharmed; that gave time for the militias to thoroughly organize themselves. On July 5, the Buenos Aires militias beat the British in urban warfare in the then-city of Buenos Aires itself. The militias' victory on July 5, without any help from Spain (their colonial master), paved the way towards the de facto independence of Buenos Aires in 1810--and the de jure independence of Buenos Aires and the rest of Argentina in 1816, a process which started in earnest after the people of Buenos Aires learned of the news of Joseph Bonaparte's invasion of Spain in 1808. The Uruguayan struggle for independence, at first from Spain and later from Portugal/Brazil, initially flirted with incorporation of much of what is now northeastern Argentina before eventually becoming a buffer state between Argentina and Brazil in 1828 with British help.

Both Argentina and Uruguay were subsequently embroiled in civil wars throughout most of the remainder of the 19th century. While they enjoyed prosperity and British financial, sports, and cultural influence in the late 19th and especially early 20th century (such that Argentina was known as an "honorary dominion" within the British "informal empire"), subsequently their political and economic situations deteriorated - pockmarked by dictatorships in the later 20th century - and they have steadily become significantly impoverished compared to the early 1900s. At heart, this is because their societies and land tenure structures have been led by oligarchies and have been unequal. This has been even more apparent in Argentina than in Uruguay, for while in Uruguay a welfare state and an egalitarian political system were set up initially under the leadership of Pres. José Batlle y Ordoñez in 1903 and have been kept intact (with occasional breaches), in Argentina only Peronism turned out to be the long-lasting reform, and overall a retrograde one at that.

Guest Post: Senators for Cities in the US

This post first appeared on Today in Alternate History with input from Allen W. McDonnell, Eric Oppen, Mike McIlvain, Scott Eiler, and Jeff Provine.

June 15, 1776 - Mayor Whitehead Hicks declares NYC loyal to King George III

Whitehead Hicks, the forty-second Mayor of New York City, ordered the arrest of the Third New York Provincial Congress. Standing in front of the statue of George III in Bowling Green, Hicks declared the city loyal to the King of England, welcoming the British fleet with open arms.

The loyalist sentiment in the city was fiercely challenged by farmers and small-town dwellers who openly rebelled. It also gave Benjamin Franklin more ammunition to try to gain France's allegiance with regular news of British interests being sabotaged in New York, such as the Great Fire that September. Ultimately patriotism would prevail, and the British Army finally departed on Evacuation Day, November 25, 1783. In their wake, General George Washington triumphantly led the Continental Army from his headquarters north of the city across the Harlem River and south through Manhattan to the Battery at its southern tip. It was a glorious moment of triumph that left many important lessons to be learned by the victors if they were to seize the opportunity for liberty.

The troubling loyalist rebellion of New York City would prove to be a defining moment at the birth of the Republic. Across America, the apparent division between the city and the countryside was a nation-building challenge of the first order for the Founding Fathers to confront. Fortunately, a lasting compromise was hashed out at the Constitutional Convention in Philadelphia. It was at the suggestion of the Virginian James Madison, who was dissatisfied with the weak national government established by the Articles of Confederation. He proposed a senator for the largest metropolitan area in each state while the other two senators would be appointed by the governor with the consent of the state legislature.

This was an imaginative technical fix, an adjustment of the original idea that state legislatures elected senators to ensure state issues were seen as important to federal government. But, inevitably, Madison's visionary brilliance was inadequate to foresee the long-term growth of the Republic, which in many ways could not possibly be anticipated from an 18th century lens. In a larger sense, that dynamic was at the heart of the uncertain experiment of American democracy. One particular development was urbanization that came up in the 19th and 20th centuries with more and more major cities and fewer folks in the countryside.

While citizens in the cities as well as the rural areas complained of imbalanced representation, this was only one of many critiques. A bi-state metropolis such as St Louis and Kansas City needed to have special status unique to their geography, greatly benefitting from the Madison Compromise. In fact, it was hard to imagine how they might otherwise be governed effectively if not directly represented in the Federal Capital by their own senators. Conversely, the Wyoming city of Cheyenne (population 64,000) received its own senator whereas the city of Casper (population 58,000) in the same state did not; this was an uneven representation that drew criticism of the Madison Compromise from citizens of Casper as well as out-of-state Americans.

The first major problem arose over Detroit, once the fourth-largest city in the nation after New York City, Chicago, and Philadelphia. Based strategically on the United States-Canada border, its population sharply diminished after the slowdown of the motor car industry, and Grand Rapids became the largest city in Michigan. The census triggered the switch of senator, causing great consternation in Detroit. Infuriated local politicians in the Big D called for a post-Madison Compromise to update the Constitution to allow representation in Washington for multiple large cities in one state over a certain population threshold. The most radical solution proposed was a Detroit-Windsor conurbation gaining special status as a Bi-State City even though Windsor was over the border in Canada. Pundits howled that this could very well let Canadians determine American policy.

Author's Note

In reality, by early 1776, the office of Mayor in British-held New York became untenable, and Hicks resigned from office. He met with a committee of nine colonials formed by the New York Provincial Congress to investigate "domestic enemies" "disaffected to the American cause." Indicating his loyalty to George III, he was subsequently put on parole. The Great Fire broke out in the early days of the military occupation by British forces destroying 20 percent of the buildings.

Provine's Addendum

The debate about "City Senators" was also particularly loud in Texas, where Houston had its senator but San Antonio (the seventh largest city in the United States), Dallas (ninth), Austin (eleventh), and Fort Worth (twelfth) had none, despite each having nearly ten times the population of Manchester, New Hampshire (population: 115,644). However, Conservatives were nervous to change the since urban populations tend to vote more liberally than rural ones. They felt their bloc could hold back the amendment required to change Madison's system, but others thought it would only be a matter of time until the change came.

Yet another opinion frequently surfaced in debate: eliminating the senate and having more direct influence on Congress through the House of Representatives. Few seemed ready to consider such a hurried step.

Guest Post: FBI Special Agent Richard Nixon

This post first appeared on Today in Alternate History, inspired by the alternatehistory.com TL Special Agent Richard Nixon.

In 1972, Acting FBI Director Clyde Tolson was put in charge of the initial investigation which would eventually lead to the resignation of President Nelson Rockefeller.

Only three weeks had passed since J. Edgar Hoover died in the middle of a presidential election year. Long-time special agents L. Patrick Gray and Richard M. Nixon desperately wanted to succeed Tolson as the permanent director. First, they had to navigate internal politics at the Bureau, Senate nominations, and the wishes of the next president, whether Nelson Rockefeller or someone less predictable should he lose in the fall.

Nixon didn't fancy these long odds and his "dark" sense of paranoia convinced him that he would be overlooked for promotion. He strongly felt a sense of injustice having enjoyed some soaring moments at the epicenter of historic events. During his early years, for example, he was trusted to be put in charge of security for African American opera singer Marian Anderson's concert on the steps of the Lincoln Memorial in Washington, D.C., in 1939. The late J. Edgar Hoover had bitter remarks about Anderson and First Lady Eleanor Roosevelt, who helped organized the concert, and said, "There is always trouble where ever these 'civil right' fighters go." The concert of course had no violent incidents. Rather than admitting he was wrong, Hoover praised Nixon for keeping the 75,000 attendees in line. From that special moment of favoritism onward, Nixon remained convinced he was destined to succeed Hoover.

But more than thirty long years past, Hoover's tainted legacy hang heavy. With Shirley Chisholm running as the first African American presidential candidate on an "unbought and unbossed" platform, it would certainly appear to segregationists that "the trouble" was growing. If a silent majority still respected Nixon, then it seemed to many liberals that he was a shadowy figure out of time, considered wholly unsuitable for the coming era. He understood the very narrow path to his dreams, but therein lie the life story of Richard M. Nixon--he needed a game-changer.

All three would-be Hoover successors were aware of Rocky's infidelities (they had also wire-tapped Martin Luther King, Jr., and had compromising records of his affairs). Whereas the indiscretions of FDR, Kennedy, Johnson, et al., had been overlooked to keep national confidence in the Oval Office, Nixon chose to go for this vulnerability for his own selfish purposes. He utterly despised the East Coast establishment as a result of childhood poverty preventing him going to Harvard. Driven by this bitter resentment, he made the fateful calculation to expose Rocky, and form a faustian pact with his Democratic rival, Ted Kennedy.

Ted K was no angel, and this calculated move would badly backfire on Nixon, however, as the reveal causing Rockefeller's scandal was traced back to Nixon, whose own shadowy actions came to the forefront. Reviews of Nixon's own shadowy actions came to the forefront, such as his effective damage-control covering up a 1969 car crash incident in Chippaquiddick for Ted Kennedy. Both men's public images were devastated.

Nixon's 36-year tenure at the Bureau ending in disgrace. In an angry resignation note he would state, "You don't have Nixon to kick around any more, because, gentlemen, this is my last report."

Author's Note:

In reality, Nixon initially hoped to join the FBI after graduating from Duke. He received no response to his letter of application, and learned years later that he had been hired, but his appointment had been canceled at the last minute due to budget cuts.

Provine's Addendum:

After the shocking 1972 election year in which Rockefeller managed to win amid protests and the lowest ever record turn-out, the American public wanted a clean slate for their elected officials. Squeaky-clean Georgia Governor Jimmy Carter (who wouldn't even do an interview for Playboy) won handily in 1976 and again in 1980 over former CIA Director George Bush. A faction of neo-conservative Republicans in 1980 sought to push Ronald Reagan for the election, but his history of divorce became a major issue at the Republican National Convention.

Guest Post: Black Warrior Affair leads to an earlier Spanish-American War

This article first appeared on Today in Alternate History exploring a theme from a number of related articles including WI: America Buys Cuba, WI: The US acquired Cuba as a Slave State? and WI Cuba acquired by US in 1854?. The point of divergence is that the U.S. Minister to Spain Pierre Soulé maintains the secrecy of his meetings as per the expressed wishes of US Secretary of State William L. Marcy.

May 19, 1854 - 

The acquisition of a Cuban slave state saved the Union from disintegrating into Civil War.

Southern expansionists seized this fleeting opportunity to break a political deadlock with abolitionists. It was a moment perfectly crafted for them by the timing of "Bleeding Kansas" occurring during the presidency of Franklin Pierce, a pro-Southern Democrat. A dystopian vision of a future Civil War, this outbreak of violence centered on the question of whether Kansas, upon gaining statehood, would join the Union as a slave state or a free state.

The situation in Cuba was vastly different than newly settled Kansas: the majority of the population were slaves, an institution that had been part of the island for centuries. In the 1800s, independence attempts were underway to overthrow colonial authorities and Africanize the island. Southerners were apprehensive that events in the Republic of Haiti would repeat in Cuba. They cynically used this fear to turn the tables on Northern abolitionists. In so doing, they brought a fresh problem which had been hotly discussed in relation to Mexico: the assimilation of Catholic-faith, Spanish-speaking citizens. A secondary issue was that Cuban statehood would likely destroy the mainland domestic sugar industry, especially in nearby Florida. A further obstacle was the suspension of the neutrality laws being demanded by the Democratic majority on the foreign relations committee, Senators Mason, Douglas, and Slidell.

The biggest problem was Spain would never sell Cuba as it was its last province of its once great empire in the Americas and much Spanish pride and stability depended on holding Cuba. Disregarding these problems, the Southern expansionists' official rationale for annexing the island was recorded in the Ostend Manifesto. National security was the documented reason "justified in wresting" the island from weak Spanish hands. This was intended to prevent Britain or France from adding to Cuba their Caribbean possessions. Trade and sovereignty became the primary issues when Cuban authorities in Havana seized the steamer Black Warrior on a regular trading route from New York City to Mobile, Alabama. Ironically, or fittingly, cotton was the commodity in dispute with the consignees, Charles Tyng and Co. The larger truth of course was that it was trade and sovereignty were driving a wedge inside the Union.

The voyage of the Black Warrior followed customary practices, but a new factor was the over-zealousness of the recently appointed governor, Juan de la Pezuela. A regressive, conservative figure out of time, he insisted upon imposing the peculiarly Spanish methods of navigation laws in Cuba to American shipping, demanding a cargo manifest that the captain refused, having never been asked it before. Cuban authorities seized the ship in response. While this international dispute was symptomatic of the political conditions at the time, the intransigence of Pezuela and the machinations of Southern expansionists clicked into place to ensure the outbreak of war.

The ultimate American war aim was the control of trade across the Gulf or even Caribbean, but her naval forces were ill-equipped for this task. Pezuela was confident, and American victory was far from assured. War dragged on, but as the tide turned toward newly built American ironclads, Spain became interested in a peaceful settlement before it lost more holdings, perhaps even to the Philippines in the Pacific. Victory satisfied not only doves in Congress but also Southerners feeling their ports more secure with American Cuba. Abolitionists eager for statehood in Minnesota were satisfied in 1858 with the addition of another free state, required for maintaining Congressional parity per the Missouri Compromise crafted by Senator Henry Clay of Kentucky in 1820. 

The genius of the Southern expansionists' solution was to be found in their knowledge of the superior strength of the naval forces under Queen Isabella II. As they had correctly anticipated, the Union was forced to build a large navy in order to recover from a series of humiliating defeats. For ease of access from Florida, these new ships were operated from Southern ports and usually were commanded by Southern officers, creating a new military balance across the Mason-Dixon Line. These heavily armed vessels would prevent a Northern army from attacking should Dixie threaten to secede from the Union.

Author's Note:

In reality, while the Black Warrior Affair was resolved peacefully, it fueled the flames of Southern expansionism. Whereas the lack of secrecy surrounding the Ostend Manifesto led to exposure, denunciation, and creation of rallying cry for anti-slavery Northerners. Marcy himself summed this up in a letter to Senator Mason dated July 23, 1854, "To tell you an unwelcome truth, the Nebraska question has sadly shattered our party in all the free states and deprived it of that strength which was needed and could have been much more profitably used for the acquisition of Cuba."

Provine's Addendum (with inspiration from comments by Philip Ebbrell):

The Spanish-American War turned to favor American victories just in time to assure Franklin Pierce his bid for reelection in 1860. Culture shock followed the war with Cuban representatives in Washington, leading to a surge in the xenophobic and populist Know Nothing Party, who rallied for such things as an official national language and defense of religious freedom from alleged "Romanist" conspiracies. Catholic immigrants who had typically voyaged to cities on the northern Atlantic Coast began shifting the immigration pattern to Cuba as local Know Nothings carried out campaigns promoting "American-only" ideas.

The debates in Congress took a sharp turn in 1862 with the French invasion of Mexico. While Emperor Napoleon III had anticipated potential friendship in the United States as partners in recolonizing Latin America, Americans rallied behind the Monroe Doctrine. The US demanded France leave the occupation zone, which was an impossibility for Napoleon since the entire matter had been one of honor due to unpaid debts to begin with. The Franco-American War started soon after, lasting several months until it was obvious that the French Navy could not compete with a modernized American fleet thousands of miles closer to home. Mexico became liberated, yet it felt tremendous influence from the US and its ships massed in the Yucatan Channel. Britain would prove the ultimate winner of these nineteenth century wars in which it did not participate, establishing far-reaching colonies in the Pacific that expanded its political and economic footprint.

War had distracted America at large from the issue of slavery for years more, but peace brought promises of change. After much effort from numerous factions in Congress, a final reform in the Thirteenth Amendment abolished slavery while also instilling legal groundwork for a racial code that kept much of the same institutions in place. Slaves were freed, but many of them ended up working in "plantation towns" or, in industrialized cities, "factory towns" where the populace lived in rented property and shopped in stores controlled by wealthy land-owners. Racial tensions kept the working class frequently pitted against each other until the Workers Revolution of the early twentieth century.

Guest Post: Roger Mudd Anchors

This post first appeared on Today in Alternate History.

The famous Roger Mudd interview undermined the presidential hopes of Senator Edward M. Kennedy in 1979. Kennedy later accused him of stumping him to boost his chances of succeeding Walter Cronkite as CBS Anchor. In this alternate scenario, Mudd does a 'Perry Mason' on Kennedy with far-reaching changes at CBS over the next 24 years.

March 9, 1981 -

The ageing Evening News anchorman Walter Cronkite was approaching his 65th birthday, the mandatory retirement age at CBS. After 19 years in the seat, he had gained the authority of a religious leader or founding father. Now he would have to make way for one of his younger colleagues, either his fellow Texan Dan Rather, Roger Mudd, or Mike Wallace. At a precipitous moment for the fourth estate, it proved to be an impossible choice to replace the pillar of American broadcast journalism, and so CBS chose both Mudd and Rather.

On the eve of his retirement, Cronkite appeared on The Tonight Show hosted by Johnny Carson. In his farewell statement, he announced, "This is but a transition, a passing of the baton. A great broadcaster and gentleman, Doug Edwards, preceded me in this job, and two others will follow. And that's the way it is: Friday, March 6, 1981. I'll be away on assignment, and Roger Mudd will be sitting in here next week. Good night." The following night, Carson did a comic spoof of his on-air farewell address.

Mudd and Rather combining forces made sense as the credibility threats to instant news coverage were immense. It might well have been the end of an era, but perhaps even more significantly, the beginning of a new one under President Reagan. As the "most trusted man in America," Cronkite had reported events from 1937 onwards, a distant, more innocent time, when the mainstream media was much tamer. Even if he was a throwback to that era, he had been at the very front of a new generation of reporters who held the US government to account. Since Johnson and Nixon, a third transition was underway in which the US government fought back. There was a pause in this power struggle with the fourth estate during the troubled terms of their lackluster successors, Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter, both of whom experienced low approval rates. However, Cronkite's replacement(s) would have to report on the recently elected Ronald Reagan, a charismatic and articulate former actor who was arguably even more media-savvy than journalists. After two decades of crises in the US government, it was that the wave of popularity would usher in a new dawn for America.

Although Rather had been favored, Mudd was certainly a formidable reporter with a strong personal connection to history and American's lived experiences. He was a direct descendant of the doctor imprisoned for treating Lincoln's assassin. Mudd's first live TV studio interview was with Dorothy Counts, a black teenage girl who had suffered racial harassment at her otherwise all-white high school in Charlotte, North Carolina. He also anchored the coverage of the 1963 March on Washington for Jobs and Freedom for CBS. However, his trajectory really took off after one of the most famous moments in the history of television, the so-called "Roger Mudd Moment." This occurred when he stumped the Democrat candidate Ted Kennedy with the question, "Senator, why do you want to be President?" If this was a low point for the Kennedy family, it was followed by a remarkable moment of solidarity in journalists as Mudd and Rather unexpectedly agreed to co-host the show.

To satiate Rather's ego, he would be prime, promoted to the top-tier position of managing editor. Signing off on his first broadcast, Mudd explained that Rather would be on air the following week, quoting from the Book of Proverbs 27:17, "As iron sharpens iron, so one man sharpens another." This arrangement, while testy in its toughest moments, added an extra weight of credibility and was proven to pass the test of time. Audiences and producers alike were impressed as Mudd insisted Rather stay on air to present the news seven minutes late after a delayed tennis match featuring Stephie Graff.

Mudd's record of hard-hitting interviews contributed in the power struggle with the Bush dynasty, from the 1988 Iran-Contra interview with the then-vice president to the later Abu Ghraib scandal and ultimately Dubya's disputed service record during the Vietnam War. The Bush family would join the Kennedy family in castigating CBS, with Dubya blaming Mudd in particular for stopping his re-election in 2004. Following Mudd's passing in 2021, Rather's summary was customarily monosyllabic. "Courage," was all he said.

Author Note:

In reality, CBS awarded the job to Rather and Mudd chose to leave CBS News and he accepted an offer to join NBC News.

Provine's Addendum:

Commentators at the time and historians alike long debated the outcome of the close 2004 election, whether it was a widespread temperament or a handful of Ohioan voters that sealed the election for Kerry. Either way, many agreed with George W. Bush that the turning point in the campaign stemmed from another "Roger Mudd Moment." The Electoral College was heavily criticized as Kerry did not win the popular election by millions, leading to the 28th Amendment assuring an overall popular election for the presidency.

While largely uneventful through the years of working to disentangle the United States from the Middle East, the Kerry administration proved incredibly unpopular as the national economy fell into steep decline in 2008. Although many Democrats argued that Kerry's recovery plans would have worked given more time, there was no time before the election in November that swept John McCain into office. McCain would return in 2012, narrowly defeating Hillary Clinton. The Democrats returned to the White House in 2016 with the election of Barack Obama, whose longtime service in the Senate had established connections that led to major reforms in healthcare, immigration, and bank regulation. Obama's handling of the 2020 COVID pandemic became widely praised, part of a list of credentials that would win him the Nobel Peace Prize.

Guest Post: Scipio Nasica averts Third Punic War

This post first appeared on Today in Alternate History proposed by Eric Oppen.

April 10, 153 BC -

An embassy to Carthage led by Roman statesmen Scipio Nasica negotiated terms of co-existence that averted the outbreak of a Third Punic War. An opponent of further conflict, he had seen for himself the rich opportunity in her growing economy and strength.

In many ways, it was an unexpectedly positive outcome for both rival powers. The mission might well have reached a very different conclusion had Marcus Porcius Cato not drowned during the sea journey. Cato was a veteran of the Punic Wars and contributed to the decisive and important victory of Sena at the Battle of the Metaurus, where Hasdrubal was slain. He had consistently encouraged the Romans to attack Carthage, famously ending every speech in the Forum with "Carthago delenda est" ["Carthage must be destroyed"]. His role in the embassy was likely to prevent any kind of accommodation with the opposing peace faction led by Scipio. Some historians wonder whether Cato's death had been a maritime accident at all, since the outcome was a resilient win for Scipio's perspective.

Institutionally, Carthage's Senate had a powerful caucus that was half-hearted in the pursuit of their wars. The truth was, she was greatly weakened by the Second Punic War and no longer able to threaten Sicily or Sardinia. Her politicians knew that the Roman Republic would continue to expand across the Mediterranean world and an accommodation was necessary to avoid destruction. The cost of their survival would be annexation and slow Romanization offset by the granting of preferential trading privileges.

This long-term peace settlement enabled the economically prosperous commercial city-state to persist in its current form, albeit as a vassal state of Rome. Ultimately, the emergence of a Roman province of Carthage would greatly strengthen the projection of power in North Africa and also in Spain. Long-term benefits would also be seen elsewhere. With Carthaginian naval expertise, Roman trade routes encouraged conquest down the west coast of Africa, establishing ports to trade with, then dominate, the rich gold fields of Ghana. Roman victories in Europe would lead to expansion into Gaul, Germania, Britannia, and then the Balkans. This was before an Eternal Peace was formed with the Persians very much in the collaborative spirit of long-dead Scipio.

Whereas Cato was opposed to the spread of Hellenic culture, Scipio realized that the expansion of the Roman Republic could be boosted by absorbing civilizations such as Greece and Carthage without threatening to destroy the rugged simplicity of the conventional Roman type. In truth, there would be some cultural exchange from annexing Carthage that would make for a different Rome, with Baal Hammon included among the pantheon as a form of Jupiter as well as the issue of child sacrifice. Like their Phoenician ancestors, the Carthaginians offered their children to "pass through the flames" in offering to the fertility gods like Baal for abundant crops. Roman propaganda during the Punic Wars denounced the practice, but a form of it evolved into Roman religion as a method to test the worthiness of children that might otherwise undergo the commonplace Roman practice of exposure.

Author Note:

In reality, the Third Punic War systematically destroyed the city and killed its inhabitants; only on the last day did they take prisoners, 50,000 of them, who were sold into slavery. The conquered Carthaginian territories became the Roman province of Africa, with Utica as its capital. It was a century before the site of Carthage was rebuilt as a Roman city.

Provine's Addendum:

Part of the Pax Aeterna (or so the generations-long treaty with the Parthian Empire was called; Roman armies adventured as far as the Baltic Sea and the Congo River aboard ships in the navy, improved by Carthaginian seamanship) was to maintain a series of buffer states to absorb friction between the two superpowers. Pompey the Great had conquered Syria and Judea in the Third Mithridatic War along with Pontus after Mithridates VI allied with the declining Armenian Empire, which looked to become a client state. Though many in the Senate called to expand ever eastward, a far-thinking faction determined to make the peace with Parthia by ensuring Armenia, Osroene at the headwaters of the Euphrates, and the restored independent kingdom of Judea remained independent. Both sides kept ambassadors at each court, but tradition forbade intrigue beyond trade and favoritism.

Client states along the Silk Road meant another set of middlemen for trade, driving up prices for Romans at home. Gradually the sea route to India through the Red Sea expanded, driven largely by descendants of Carthaginians. Soon Hindu gods would find influence in the Roman pantheon as well.