On two occasions two years apart during the Second World War, the sixth of June proved to be a day of disaster. The first was in the Pacific Theater as the Imperial Japanese Navy looked to take Midway Island and push American control 1,200 miles backward. Since the war in the Pacific had begun for the Americans with the Japanese raid on Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941, it had been mostly a calculated retreat. FDR ordered General Douglas MacArthur to relocate from the Philippines to Australia in February, 1942, prompting the famous “I shall return” speech. The Japanese swept through the Dutch East Indies until finally being stopped at the Battle of Coral Sea. While the Allies took heavier losses, they hindered the Japanese enough to stop their invasion of southern New Guinea.
In the next weeks, Yamamoto collected a massive
fleet to make an attack on Midway Island, America’s most forward holding in the
northern Pacific. The attack had been
expected by command since the 1930s, but there seemed no way to beat Japanese
numbers with victory at Coral Sea being granted by superb American flight crews
since ships did not even sea one another.
Code-breakers attempted to trick the code for Midway out of the Japanese
naval code JN-25 by falsely broadcasting in May that the Midway water
distillation plant had broken and requesting supplies. While Japanese radio-operators were preparing
to pass along word that “AF” (Midway) was short of water, command stopped them,
having been suspicious over the American carriers seeming to appear exactly in
the right place and time at Coral Sea.
Yamamoto, who had spread his fleet widely to avoid detection, decided
Americans were already suspicious and reordered his ships into a tighter pack
that struck Midway and the few American reinforcements there. Most of the American Pacific fleet was in
Hawaii, with the U.S.S. Lexington carrier under extensive
repair.
After the fall of Midway, the Japanese and
Americans fought endlessly between Midway and Hawaii, with the Americans
finally pushing the Japanese back in November of 1942. They had allowed the Japanese to dig in at
places such as the Eastern Solomons and Guadalcanal, but the full industrial
might of America finally outpaced early Japanese advantages. With the loss of nearly 1000 pilots over the
month-long Battle of Hawaii, the Japanese were unable to replace their crews,
and the navy became impotent, relying on the army to hold the islands conquered
early in the war. The Second Battle of
Midway in 1944 restored it to American hands at the cost of thousands of
Marines’ lives. By December 1945, the
Americans had overtaken outlying Japanese bases at Okinawa and Iwo Jima, making
routine firebombing of the mainland possible.
June 6 was also the day of the disastrous attempt
at an amphibious landing on the north coast of France. Weather had delayed the attack from June 5,
but the Allies made an eager assault at Normandy on the morning of June 6,
1944, without full air support. While many
of the German High Command were absent (Hitler was reported to have slept late
that day) or more fearful of attack at Calais, communications broken up by
Allied paratroopers ironically inspired reserve commanders to act on their own
initiative. The Allies held the beach
for a time, but Panzers under Rommel drove the troops back into the sea by
afternoon (thanks to winning out before Hitler in an argument with Field
Marshal Gerd von Rundstedt about mobile defense).
Eisenhower and the Allies retreated to prepare for
another amphibious invasion, but the “worst channel storm in 40 years”
delayed them through June. Instead, the
Allies determined to feint at Calais and made an assault Marseille in the
South, for which Churchill had long campaigned.
Italy had been occupied by the Germans after capitulating, slowing
advance up the Italian peninsula into a stalemate. Operation Dragoon created a fresh front
through southern France, causing the Germans to move their attention
southward. Shortly afterward, the Allies
struck at Brittany, finally establishing a lasting beachhead at Brest. Meanwhile, on the Eastern Front, Stalin began
ferocious counterattacks, pushing westward and catching whole German armies in pincer
movements. By May of 1945, Russians had
marched into Bavaria, taking as much ground as possible as the Western forces
attempted to catch up for the Battle of Berlin a month later.
The
war in Europe ended on May 28 with the Soviets controlling almost the whole of
Germany. Issues immediately began to
arise with occupation zones as French demanded an area of Germany. At Potsdam that July, the quickly fracturing
Allies determined that the Soviets could control Germany as long as it followed
the Potsdam Agreement and Russia would declare war on Japan to end the Pacific
theater. President Truman’s use of the
atomic bomb and the Soviet invasion of Manchuria led to VJ Day on January
14/15. Again, the Soviets made great
leaps in occupation, taking Korea and the northern islands of Japan while the
beleaguered American forces worked to disarm southern islands still held by
imperial forces.
With so much Soviet influence in the East, Stalin refused
to give up Manchuria to the Chinese as a result of the ongoing Chinese Civil
War, explaining they needed secure railways to support the occupational forces
in Korea. Both Nationalist and Communist
Chinese balked at the invasion and called another truce as they had during
Japanese invasion, although each was willing to injure the other whenever
possible. The occupation of Manchuria
began the Sino-Soviet War, which dragged on as Western powers watched. With the development of Russian atomic
weapons in 1949, the West finally acted with a NATO ultimatum banning the use
of atomic weapons.
NATO-Soviet relations continued to crumble until
the death of Stalin in 1956 ignited revolutions beginning in Hungary and
spreading throughout Europe. Already
stretched thin with fighting in China and occupation in Central Asia, the stress
was enough to break the Soviet Bloc and bring the experiment of Russian
Communism crashing down. War in China
continued until NATO influence finally brought Kai-shek’s Nationalists into
power, spreading capitalism into other former Soviet nations such as Korea and
Xinjiang.
--
In reality, the US had broken the Japanese naval
code and was able to appear at Midway with reinforcements, including the
Yorktown, which had been repaired round-the-clock in Hawaii
over 72 hours at Nimitz’s urging. German
High Command, however, was not as able and delayed counterattacks on D-Day
until much too late to reverse Allied advances into Normandy.
on the Today in Alternate History web site we revisit this concept in our variant article June 6, 1944 and 1946 - A Cursed Day for the Allies which imagines the failure of X-Day, the fictional invasion of Japan two years later.
ReplyDelete