Guest Post: President Clay and the American Empire of Commerce

This post first appeared on Today in Alternate History with inspiration from History with Jacob and Robbie A. Taylor.

HISTORICAL BACKGROUND:

The Whig's vision of the future was famously described by Daniel Walker Howe in What Hath God Wrought: Transformation of America, 1815-1848, "Rather than dominate through force, the Whigs hoped to establish an American empire of commerce, spreading America's economy and culture by 'expanding trade and Christian missions'."

POINT OF DIVERGENCE: 

Henry Clay, who was a man who had such a massive impact on the United States, never rose to be its leader, despite his many attempts ("I would rather be right than be President"). Whereas, in our post, we imagine that because of a couple of thousand votes in New York and Michigan, Henry Clay's Whig Party defeats James K. Polk and the Democrats in the 1844 presidential election. He sets out to implement his ambitious American System, dramatically altering the course of Manifest Destiny.

15 June 1846 - Oregon boundary dispute resolved by President Clay

In 1846, a bilateral agreement between the United States and Great Britain settled a longstanding dispute over their boundary between British North America and the United States. The border continued along the 49th parallel until the Strait of Georgia, where the marine boundary curved south to exclude Vancouver Island and the Gulf Islands from the United States.

President Henry Clay's diplomatic efforts in the Pacific Northwest were a notable success during his first term. This result was achieved even though he had evinced no interest in the question in line; the Whigs viewed that it was unimportant compared to other domestic problems (bolstering manufacturing and urbanization, the national bank, internal improvements and tariffs), whereas Clay's Democrat opponents had proposed to forcibly end the Oregon Question by annexing the entire area. This disagreement was symptomatic of a larger internal dispute, and more specifically, the Democratic Party's dangerously belligerent approach to westward expansion.

Clay's attention was directed toward an Atlantic-focused nation, which permitted Texas to achieve independence (a compromise agreement peacefully ended the border dispute with no land taken or given) and allowed Mexico's northern regions to prosper. He faced sharp criticism from his former rival, James K. Polk, for failing to seize a crucial opportunity related to Manifest Destiny: America was excluded from the Gold Rush in California. The dream of an expansive American nation extending from "sea to shining sea" conflicted with Clay's goal of an Empire of Commerce. He wanted to establish an America that rivaled Great Britain through economic might, infrastructure, and financial stability. A more cautious man than Polk, he was greatly concerned about the potential spread of slavery to new western territories, which could exacerbate tensions leading to secession and civil war in the South.

Regional interests surely played a part--the different birth states of Clay (Kentucky) and Polk (Tennessee) were behind their very different future visions. In the end, the showdown over slavery was to prove unavoidable causing bloodshed and tragedy for both states. These emerging issues would dominate the troubled presidency of Theodore Frelinghuysen after Clay died of tuberculosis during his second term. Meanwhile, and thanks to lucrative gold revenues, Mexico would develop into a middle-tier power similar to Canada. Her national energies focused on designs connecting the Pacific and Gulf via a canal between the Gila and Rio Grande rivers. She would not pose a threat to the United States but instead becoming a viable emerging economy along the border, gradually evolving into a strategic trading ally for both the Union and also the Confederacy.

AUTHOR'S NOTE:

In reality, the 1844 election result was one of the most consequential in American history. The Whigs saw America's role as setting a democratic example, not an example of conquest but Polk's narrow victory reshaped the nation's course. The treaty would result in Oregon, Idaho, and Washington as present day states.

PROVINE'S ADDENDUM:

By the twentieth century, the United States had a strong economic corridor that connected the Atlantic Ocean through the Great Lakes to Chicago, where it joined the Transcontinental Railroad up to Minneapolis where it headed west across the Rockies to Tacoma, Washington. Canadian fortunes tied strongly to it with shared St. Lawrence River traffic and railroads southward from ranches and farms across Alberta and Saskatchewan. The Mississippi River was another international waterway through the Confederacy, which struggled to industrialize outside of a few pockets along the Alabama River. New Orleans served as the western focus of trade, bringing in trade from all over the world, especially the Texas and Mexico, which cooperated along the Gila-Rio Grande corridor maintained by a clever system of recycling that pumped much-needed water upriver from its locks. With so much of each nation's economy dependent on peace, the nations worked diligently on diplomacy; the US, Confederacy, and Texas each even assured would-be separatists near San Francisco and the Great Salt Lake would never be recognized (despite their own historical declarations of independence founding each of their countries).

When war broke out in Europe, it shattered the North American peace as well. As European nations were distracted, the Confederacy had eyes on seizing Caribbean island colonies. Mexico, which had sought to place itself in leadership of fellow Spanish-speaking countries, demanded the islands be freed rather than seized by another empire. Meanwhile, the United States sought a modernized canal between the Atlantic and Pacific, preferably resurrecting the French attempt in Panama rather than a Mexico-dominated project across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. The Confederacy began a naval war with Mexico, the Republic of California broke away, and the United States used the opportunity to secure a foothold with a breakaway state of Colombia. Texas militarized its borders quickly to remain neutral, though sabotage of the canal threatened war with the Confederacy, including shots fired across the Sabine River. By the time the war ended, new nations had been born with independence movements in California and the Caribbean.